The Fed runs an overnight reverse repo facility for institutions like banks and money market funds. It works like a one day interest bearing deposit, secured by bonds held in the Fed's portfolio. The amount on deposit has now reached the astronomical amount of $2.2 trillion, and it currently collects interest at 1.55% which will likely go to 2.30% today when the Fed raises rates again.
Fed Reverse Repo Reaches $2.2 Trillion
Thus, the Fed will pay a huge $50.6 billion annualized in interest to banks and money funds. Why should it? If the Fed was a regular bank, the reverse repo would be a way to fund its existing bond portfolio, which probably earns more than 2.30% - at least for now. But unlike regular banks and institutional investors the Fed doesn't have to worry about funding anything - it just prints the money it needs, that's the whole idea of central banking.
When amounts deposited to the Fed via reverse repo were minute (usually around $1-2 billion before the pandemic) the rate paid didn't matter. But with $2.2 trillion now flooding the Fed the rate paid makes a very big difference, indeed.
Thus, the reverse repo is now nothing more than a direct "subsidy" to the financial sector and should be immediately stopped, or at least be modified to pay minimal interest well below market rates, say one tenth Fed funds, ie around 0.15-0.25%. Naturally, this will force financial institutions to seek other places to park their excess cash, driving short term rates lower, probably below where Fed wants them to be to fight inflation.
The problem, quite obviously, is the "excess cash" itself and this is another reason the Fed should start draining it aggressively from the system via Quantitative Tightening.
btw Hell,... I have been wondering how to reconcile the fact that the U.S. has record employment but the GDP is down... are we arguing that the new additions are so much less productive that they actually pull down the numbers?... silly argument I know... but not sure what else to make of it...
ReplyDeleteVery good question and almost impossible to answer accurately. There is a slew of complications arising from the pandemic gyrations throwing off seasonal and other adjustments - for example, foreign trade patterns.
DeleteAnother complication arises, I believe, from the simply enormous infusion of new money which swamped the system in just a few months in 2020-21.
I will track down some raw data and attempt a reconciliation, but for now it seems that the GDPNow calculation from the Atlanta Fed is the closest to reality.
cool man! will wait eagerly for it. =)
ReplyDeleteWell, I tried. Best I can come up with is that higher prices for energy and materials are causing a sizable drop in construction and consumer demand for goods. Services have (once again) saved the day
Deleteitemized by %
Goods -1.60%
Structures -1.27
Services +1.94
Motor vehicles +0.03
TOTAL GDP CHANGE -0.90%
But, services' output/consumption is notoriously difficult to measure so... grain of salt.
Deletethanks man.. =)
DeleteI guess it is too early to say anything meaningful...