Canary In The Mine

 Back to sudden debt.. lots and lots of zooming debt, and potentially in lots of trouble.

Open AI has borrowed $96 billion up to now, with major lenders being SoftBank, Oracle and a bunch of private debt funds. But, it turns out that Open AI is being rapidly overtaken by Google - not exactly a surprise, given Google’s massive data supremacy.

Taking a look at SoftBank and Oracle stocks… they are down sharply from their recent bubbly tops: SoftBank is down 30% and Oracle 45% while our blast-from-the-past 5 year CDS (Credit Default Swap) for Oracle has gone from 25 to 125 recently. Likewise, SoftBank CDS jumped from 200 to 300 in the last two months.

And there is a lot of exposure to shadow banking out there.. but just because it’s in the shadows doesn’t mean the “real” banking world is immune. In the end, all banking is connected.