The latest available data puts US margin debt at an all time high of $1.25 trillion (FINRA, Feb. 2026) - see chart below. But is this all there is, or is there additional hidden leverage? And could the part that is hidden be concentrated amongst jew a few borrowers?
Margin Debt Reported By FINRA (chart by Yardeni Research)
It is no secret that major shareholders - particularly in the tech sector - do not sell their shares to raise money since they would have to pay capital gains tax. Instead, they borrow against their shares in the form of securiries-based lending (SBL). Such loans basically margin debt, but they do not appear in the FINRA data since they are mostly arranged directly with private banks, domestically and abroad, and are not subject to disclosure rules.
Nobody really knows how much money is involved in SBLs but some estimates put it at $500 billion, and perhaps more. Therefore, the actual leverage out there is significantly bigger than what is shown by FINRA numbers alone. Furthermore, since the equity market is currently very, very narrow and just a handful of individuals own large swaths of stock in the few stocks that make up the US stockmarket, SBL debt must also be owed by very few people (I'm sure we can all name them, but Elon Musk is a prime example with his purchase of X with loans collateralized by Tesla stock).
The risk of leverage exacerbating a market correction is always present because a margin call affects all, no matter who you may be.
High hidden leverage + very narrow market + few individuals participating + index ETFs = ???
PS For weeks now I have observed gyrations that can be explained as "support operations" in US equity markets. Add this to the mix above...
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