Greek 4Q GDP rose 1.9% YOY, the fastest in 10 years. Similarly, manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level on record in February.
Monday, March 5, 2018
Friday, March 2, 2018
Steel Duties, Seriously?
Imposing import duties on steel and aluminum is akin to protecting the horse buggy business when Ford set up his car production line... completely useless and meaningless.
The US economy is long past it’s heavy, metal-basing industrial era. Trump is just playing up to his lowest common denominator electoral base, that’s all.
For proof, just look at the makeup of the DowJones Industrial Average in 1980 (even 2000) and today. Unlike the past, the US economy today is all about Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and a couple pharma companies.
Move on...
The US economy is long past it’s heavy, metal-basing industrial era. Trump is just playing up to his lowest common denominator electoral base, that’s all.
For proof, just look at the makeup of the DowJones Industrial Average in 1980 (even 2000) and today. Unlike the past, the US economy today is all about Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and a couple pharma companies.
Move on...
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Interest Rates And Savings
One single chart: Ten year Treasury yields and the personal saving rate (ie the percentage of income saved).
The correlation is interesting.
The correlation is interesting.
Friday, February 9, 2018
Yes, Virginia, There IS Volatility
What happened with US stocks? Why did they tank so suddenly after months of steady gains?
No, there was no irrational exuberance, no massive leveraging, no pernicious balance sheet shenanigans at banks, no NINJA loans, no CDS/CMO/CDO (plain, squared or cubed) baloney. Valuations weren’t even that high, given forward P/Es around 18-16x.
There was, however, a sort of “complacency bubble”, aka very, very low volatility. This in turn spawned a variety of listed and OTC trades that shorted volatility for profit. It worked like a charm - until it didn’t.
The following chart makes things quite clear. It’s the price of an ETF (exchange traded fund) that shorts VIX futures. Yes, Virginia, there IS volatility!
In my opinion that’s all there was to it - the snap unwinding of short vol trades.
No, there was no irrational exuberance, no massive leveraging, no pernicious balance sheet shenanigans at banks, no NINJA loans, no CDS/CMO/CDO (plain, squared or cubed) baloney. Valuations weren’t even that high, given forward P/Es around 18-16x.
There was, however, a sort of “complacency bubble”, aka very, very low volatility. This in turn spawned a variety of listed and OTC trades that shorted volatility for profit. It worked like a charm - until it didn’t.
The following chart makes things quite clear. It’s the price of an ETF (exchange traded fund) that shorts VIX futures. Yes, Virginia, there IS volatility!
In my opinion that’s all there was to it - the snap unwinding of short vol trades.
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
USA Margin Debt
Given the stock market plunge of the last few days, the following chart is interesting. It is current to year-end 2017 (latest available), the data comes from FINRA.
Given that total market cap at the time was approx. $32 trillion, margin debt of $650 billion doesn't seem all that excessive. In other words, selling due to system wide over-leveraging isn't the likely culprit of the sell-off.
Given that total market cap at the time was approx. $32 trillion, margin debt of $650 billion doesn't seem all that excessive. In other words, selling due to system wide over-leveraging isn't the likely culprit of the sell-off.
Friday, February 2, 2018
Greek PMI Near Record
Manufacturing in Greece is staging a strong and rapid comeback. The Purchasing Manager's Index for manufacturing is now at the highest level since 2007. Increasing new orders is the biggest contributor to the rise, with new employee hiring also boosting the index.
The PMI is a diffusion index, with levels over 50 indicating expansion and under 50 indicating contraction. The light blue area is annual GDP change, left scale.
Manufacturing accounts for only 12-15% of Greek GDP, but the correlation between PMI and GDP is pretty solid. Interestingly, the last time PMI was at current levels the Greek economy was growing over 5% per year.
Thursday, February 1, 2018
USA Debt: Is It A Threat?
US federal government debt is now at 106% of GDP, the highest in decades. It got there because it was forced to bail out the financial sector during the 2007-10 Great Meltdown, essentially having the Federal Reserve "print" money with its Quantitative Easing (a.k.a. Ben's helicopter).
This debt load certainly looks formidable and perhaps threatening to the economy's health. Is it so? Well, yes. And, no...
Yes, because a highly leveraged economy has, by definition, a lower capacity to overcome recessionary downturns without painful asset liquidations and capital losses, perhaps even social unrest. Just ask the Germans and how scared they (still) are of the Weimar hyperinflation period which paved the way for Hitler.
And no, because it matters very much to WHOM the debt is owed. Just ask the Japanese today, who owe their huge debt (250% of GDP) mostly to themselves (i.e. they are self-financed through a high saving rate).
In the case of the US national debt, 25% is inter-government (mostly held by the Social Security Trust Fund), another 25% is held by American investors (e.g. pension funds, banks, individuals) and 12% by the Federal Reserve. Thus, a total of 62% of the debt is owned directly by American holders. This leaves 32% owned by foreigners, but even there I expect that a chunk is owned by Americans through entities in tax havens such as the Virgin Islands, Channel Islands, Switzerland, etc.
More important still, is how the government is managing its finances. It is doing quite well, as the following chart shows: government spending is back to 34% of GDP, very near a 50 year low.
Bottom line - even though it may seem high, US debt is not a threat to the economy.
Yes, because a highly leveraged economy has, by definition, a lower capacity to overcome recessionary downturns without painful asset liquidations and capital losses, perhaps even social unrest. Just ask the Germans and how scared they (still) are of the Weimar hyperinflation period which paved the way for Hitler.
And no, because it matters very much to WHOM the debt is owed. Just ask the Japanese today, who owe their huge debt (250% of GDP) mostly to themselves (i.e. they are self-financed through a high saving rate).
In the case of the US national debt, 25% is inter-government (mostly held by the Social Security Trust Fund), another 25% is held by American investors (e.g. pension funds, banks, individuals) and 12% by the Federal Reserve. Thus, a total of 62% of the debt is owned directly by American holders. This leaves 32% owned by foreigners, but even there I expect that a chunk is owned by Americans through entities in tax havens such as the Virgin Islands, Channel Islands, Switzerland, etc.
More important still, is how the government is managing its finances. It is doing quite well, as the following chart shows: government spending is back to 34% of GDP, very near a 50 year low.
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Disruption
Buffett, Bezos and Dimon announced they are going to massively disrupt US healthcare by designing and implementing an in-house system for their combined 1+ million employees on a not-for-profit basis, and potentially rolling it out to the rest of the country.
This is simply huge.
The US has arguably the world's most inefficient healthcare system, entangled in a mess of legal, insurance, pharmaceutical (need I mention Valeant?) and hospital concerns, all jockeying for legitimate and illegitimate profits.
The following chart says it all: The US spends 17% of GDP on healthcare, far more than other countries. Even a 2% reduction means savings of almost $400 billion per year.
If the trio manages to streamline the healthcare industry it will create a paradigm shift akin to Henry Ford's automobile assembly line.
There is another American "industry" that has also become very expensive when compared to the rest of the world: College education. I don't think it will be long before some other leaders get involved there.
This is simply huge.
The US has arguably the world's most inefficient healthcare system, entangled in a mess of legal, insurance, pharmaceutical (need I mention Valeant?) and hospital concerns, all jockeying for legitimate and illegitimate profits.
The following chart says it all: The US spends 17% of GDP on healthcare, far more than other countries. Even a 2% reduction means savings of almost $400 billion per year.
There is another American "industry" that has also become very expensive when compared to the rest of the world: College education. I don't think it will be long before some other leaders get involved there.
Friday, January 26, 2018
A Funny Thing Happened On The Way To The Forum
The World Economic Forum at Davos is in the news these days, as it is every year at this time. The world’s leaders - political, business and financial - gather to rub shoulders and, very occasionally, achieve something more than self-congratulation. Going back a quarter century, however, the WEF wasn't nearly as famous as it is today.
And that's when yours truly comes into the story..
It was around 1992 when I saw an ad in The Economist for a position at the WEF. They were looking for someone that combined knowledge in engineering/energy with finance. It fit my profile pretty nicely so I sent off a resume, mostly on a lark since I wasn't quite ready to move from the Big Apple to Geneva or some remote village in the Swiss Alps, no matter how glamorous.
About a month later, however, I was surprised to get a call inviting me for an interview to be held in Manhattan. More surprising still was that the lady on the phone spoke Greek and introduced herself with a last name that was instantly recognizable: a very, very large Greek tycoon shipping family.
She explained that Professor Klaus Schwab - the founder of WEF himself - was in NYC for a few days and would I mind if I met him on short notice? The meeting would take place at her apartment in Midtown, just a few blocks from my office. I agreed.
On the appointed hour the door was opened by an attractive middle-aged lady who showed me to the living room and explained that the Professor was running a bit late, would I care for some refreshment in the meantime? A crudites, cheese and cracker platter was set on the coffee table.
We sat down and engaged in some idle remarks which quickly petered out.. that's when I noticed a portrait hanging prominently over the fireplace.
"That's a very nice painting, almost like an El Greco" I said, eager to re-start the conversation.
I will never forget the icy hauter in her voice as she responded:
"It IS an El Greco".
Professor Schwab came in a few minutes later and we proceeded with the interview, but it might as well have not happened. My faux-pas with the painting had sealed my fate, since the WEF was - and still is - much more of a diplomatic institution than anything else...
I chuckle every January as news and images from snowy Davos hits my TV...
And that's when yours truly comes into the story..
It was around 1992 when I saw an ad in The Economist for a position at the WEF. They were looking for someone that combined knowledge in engineering/energy with finance. It fit my profile pretty nicely so I sent off a resume, mostly on a lark since I wasn't quite ready to move from the Big Apple to Geneva or some remote village in the Swiss Alps, no matter how glamorous.
About a month later, however, I was surprised to get a call inviting me for an interview to be held in Manhattan. More surprising still was that the lady on the phone spoke Greek and introduced herself with a last name that was instantly recognizable: a very, very large Greek tycoon shipping family.
She explained that Professor Klaus Schwab - the founder of WEF himself - was in NYC for a few days and would I mind if I met him on short notice? The meeting would take place at her apartment in Midtown, just a few blocks from my office. I agreed.
On the appointed hour the door was opened by an attractive middle-aged lady who showed me to the living room and explained that the Professor was running a bit late, would I care for some refreshment in the meantime? A crudites, cheese and cracker platter was set on the coffee table.
We sat down and engaged in some idle remarks which quickly petered out.. that's when I noticed a portrait hanging prominently over the fireplace.
This wasn't the painting, but close enough..
"That's a very nice painting, almost like an El Greco" I said, eager to re-start the conversation.
I will never forget the icy hauter in her voice as she responded:
"It IS an El Greco".
Professor Schwab came in a few minutes later and we proceeded with the interview, but it might as well have not happened. My faux-pas with the painting had sealed my fate, since the WEF was - and still is - much more of a diplomatic institution than anything else...
I chuckle every January as news and images from snowy Davos hits my TV...
Thursday, January 25, 2018
Greece: Various Data
The situation in Greece continues to improve. Latest data:
- The 5-year CDS (credit default swap) dropped to 292.9, the lowest point since the crisis began.
- S&P upgraded Greece one notch to B, with positive outlook.
- The 2-year government note now yields 1.25%, a multi-year low.
- Building permits for October 2017 were up 16.4% vs. Oct. 2016. More importantly, the surface area represented in these permits was up 67% and the buildings' volume up 109%. This means that large structures are involved, exactly in line with my predictions for major hotel building/renovation activity, right after the conclusion of the tourism season.
- Electricity consumption for the whole year 2017 was up 3%, with the middle-power segment showing the largest increase at 5.84%. That's demand coming from hotels, restaurants and other medium size businesses.
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