Thursday, September 20, 2007

The Real Reason For The Fed's 50 bp Cut

Occam's Rule: Sometimes the truth is so simple that even as it stares us in the face we are blind to it.
The Federal Reserve cut its Fed Funds benchmark rate by 50 bp to 4.75%, more than most analysts' expectations. Already there have been trillions of pixels written to explain why, but none that I have seen follow the time-honored Occam or KISS principle (Keep It Simple, Stupid).

Here is a chart that explains the FRB's move; for the non-professional there is an explanation after it.

The chart above shows the interbank money market yield curve for US dollars, from overnight (O/N) out to 12 months. These are the rates that banks charge each other to borrow for the period specified. When you hear LIBOR mentioned (London InterBank Offered Rate), these are the rates they refer to.

The money market is by far the most important in the world, the very foundation upon which banking and finance rest, because it provides the day-to-day financing that keeps the wheels of finance and commerce spinning. It is normally a very mundane and boring market, a sort of meat and potatoes process that just works day in and day out. Think of it as finance's equivalent of the electrical power plant, i.e. it is taken for granted - until something goes wrong. Any trouble in the money market is immediately transmitted via the banks to the bond and stock markets and then quickly out to the "real" economy.

So what does the above chart tell us? On September 12 the money market was truly ugly, with a big "hump" in the cost of money from 1 month out to 6 months. The spread in interest rates between 3 months and O/N was almost exactly 50 bp. The reason was that Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) that typically came due in 30-90 days was not being rolled over and everyone was scrambling for money to replace it. This is also why the ECB was constantly pumping huge amounts of money into the system: it was bailing out the banks' SIVs that could not find any money to replace their ABCPs (I wrote elsewhere that the ECB was doing the Fed's laundry - this is the reason).

At a borrowing cost of 5.70-5.80% against assets that yielded maybe 5.50% and leveraged 10-20x, various SIVs and other borrow short - lend long players were bleeding money like crazy. The situation was indeed critical and the cost of money had to be brought down sharply or the banks would have to sell collateral (CDOs, CLOs, etc.) in a depressed market and write huge losses in their books - If they could find a buyer, that is.

So the cost of money was brought down. Clearly 25 bp would not have done the trick - just look at the chart - and so the Fed cut 50 bp. It's as simple as that. Nothing to do with the economy, jobs, retail sales or the cost of peanut butter in Peoria. Ain't the truth fun?

So now what? As you can see from the blue line, the "hump" is still there but it is much smaller. The banks have been given some breathing room and can keep those CDOs, CLOs, etc on their books more comfortably. But - there is always a but - the mass of ABCP and ABCP-type financing has now shifted to the O/N market, i.e. it rolls daily because lenders do not trust them and want to be able to pull their money out ASAP. This type of financing from one day to the next is very dangerous: if there is another credit crisis like we saw two weeks ago, such lenders will demand their money all at once, in the same day. To draw a parallel, say everyone has to drive to work every day but gas stations only provide each customer with enough gas for just one round trip. It is easy to imagine what will happen if gas runs short...

Let me say one final thing: most people are not fools. If bankers and politicians try to instill a false sense of confidence by claiming things are different than what everyone knows, they lose credibility. Do it too much and people get really worried and think: defense (i.e. I want my money NOW). Most people know houses are too expensive, most people know there is way too much debt and just about everyone knows that financier pay at a billion dollars a year isn't sustainable.

As a Republican once said: "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time".

124 comments:

coveredwagon said...

Lovely! You deserve a readership of vast multitudes - every post a gem!

Hellasious said...

You keep on saying things like that and my head will swell bigger than a hedge fund's margin balance!

Thank you for the kind words.

Sue said...

Hello, I'm not a professional trader but I find your blog to be very helpful in understanding what's going on in the markets. I too have been wondering how much debt an average household can take on before they can't handle their min. payments anymore. When you hear people spending more then 50% of their income just to keep a roof over their heads you have to realize that something is very wrong here. I am looking forward to a day maybe prices come back to where the average person can afford it. Really, what's so wrong with that?

Anonymous said...

So in other words, they want to crash the USD to bail out a bunch of uber banks who made insane bets on worthless paper. So when Americans pay more for everything, that is to bail out the bankers. This is preposterous...Interest rates should go through the roof immediately and crush this scheme....

Anonymous said...

You really nailed it with that analysis. You saw what no one else out there had the clarity of insight to see.

Looks like the Fed bought a very small stay of execution (with ABCP rolling overnight now).

The axe of Damocles is hanging over the asset-backed securities market.

Better keep a sharp eye on those overnight interbank rates....

Bernard

Anonymous said...

This is huge news. Saudi Arabia may drop its the dollar peg.

Gold is shooting through the roof and the 10-year Treasury yield is spiking today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/19/bcnsaudi119.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

This represents the FINAL stage in a process described in a commentary that I wrote a few months ago:

www.silverbearcafe.com/private/toomuch.html

Bernard

Crimson Ghost said...

A very informative post!


Frankly I was surprised by how sharply stocks rallied in the wake of the Fed cut.

But wonder how long they can hold on to those gains with gold and long-term bond yields joining the party.

Anonymous said...

How much dept is there?
Money is dept!

Anonymous said...

Hellasious -

I have been a regular visitor to your page now for about a month - it's commentaries like this that have me hooked to your blog.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge and perspective - it's sobering stuff but you have to know facts to properly deal with them.

Anonymous said...

Spot On! Great analysis and a perfect fit to our awful reality. So now we live day by day with a hair-triggered gun to our heads. It won't be long. Thanks for an elegant analysis.

Anonymous said...

Notice how the Fed lowered to 4.75%, but the Treasury Complex has been selling for 3 days now?...I don't think this Fed has anymore room to move rates lower now because it will only raise intermediate and long term Treasury rates. A further Fed Target Rate reduction from here is a de facto interest rate increase.

Edwardo said...

Hellasious I need your help.

I want your thoughts on the following contentions.
The contentions in the second and third paragraph are not mine. TIA.

Person A

I think I read that tome eons ago, Rees Moog and some other fellow if memory serves. As for a policy decision to destroy savers, no offense, Rick, but what savers? We are a nation of egregious debtors. For sure the bond market will revolt at the revolting prospect of hyper-inflation, but lets face it, inflation is the default (no pun intended) position in our ghastly fiat system as in all roads lead to it. And once the path to inflate one's way out of every financial predicament is taken, it's awfully fiendishly hard, as you know, to control the consequences.

Person B

We’ve never had to inflate away anything remotely like $500 trillion of potential deflation.  Concering the bond market, it would not merely “revolt” – it would be utterly destroyed and would cease to function for at least a generation.  And savers?  I am talking about the world, not just about the U.S. And even if we are not a nation savers, just about any asset personal, public or corporate that is sitting on a balance sheet right now would be reduced in value by perhaps 90% or more.
 
I’d be enthused to print your response if you can refute any one of the points above.  No one ever has, though -- at least not persuasively.  The most depressing attempt was Eric Janszen’s (the founder of iTulip).  Our “debate” was so lopsided as to all but prove there is no case for inflation.

Anonymous said...

Can you give the source of your data. I found this page:http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=212e7b2e-0cdc-4653-ab9f-d6ea10bd1461
giving this:
Wed, Sep 19 2007, 15:45 GMT
http://www.afxnews.com

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - INTERBANK OFFERED RATES

OVERNIGHT 5.89

1 WEEK 6.05

1 MONTH 6.45

2 MONTHS 6.49

3 MONTHS 6.55

4 MONTHS 6.51

5 MONTHS 6.48
etc.
Thanks, C.

Hellasious said...

Dear edwardo,

Re: deflation/inflation

It is almost a theological or, better yet, teleological debate. How does it all end for history's largest global power? Well, we simply don't have a clue.

But from my experience in day to day running of money and bond markets, I can tell you that if the US tried to over-inflate now, it would accomplish the exact opposite. People would simply stop buying US debt and demand hard assets in return, creating a sort of high-finance barter economy.

It would start... well, kinda the way it already has. People shun the high risk debt and move to "higher" quality debt (Treasuries, agencies). This would essentially kill the economy because credit is an essential part, for the US at least.

As the economy weakened tax receipts would drop, tax rates would be increased and services curtailed. If The People wake up and realize that local production and jobs plus sustainability instead of perma-growth are the way out - fine. It would slowly come back. If not, then the US will go into a down spiral - a bit like the Great Depression but worse because of high debt combined with resource depletion.

I hope I have been of help.

Regards

Hellasious said...

Re: source for rates

The rates for Sep 12 are from the BBA (British Bankers Assn) Google LIBOR and you will get the historical data.

The rates for today, Sep. 20th I got from bank and interbank broker screens (unless u are a pro you don't have access to them) and are not the precise LIBOR fixings because I got them early in the AM London time before the official fix. They are the mid of the bid-offer spread.

But those rates you quote are completely out of whack - way, way, way too high. Are you sure they refer to USD? LIBOR is fixed for several currencies.

The page you link to is unfortunately subscription only.

Regards

Shawn said...

Hellasious, given your in-depth financial knowledge, I would like to ask for your opinions if you think market manipulation by Bernanke and Paulson exists?

I remembered I read probably 3 weeks ago somewhere quoted Paulson saying he and Treasury was and had been Actively "intervening" the markets (not sure what he mean by "Intervene", and "Markets") to reduce the impact of financial mess.

In my opinion, Bernanke and FED seem recently adopted a new asset inflation mentra -- they never take actions when inflation was way higher than their comfortable zone back in 4th quarter 2006 and 1st and 2nd quarters of 2007. They just talked about it. Now when inflation just started to ease a little bit, they cut rates.

It seems like they would want inflation and bubble market to keep expanding, and immediately support the bubble once it shows any sign of slowing down.

Are FED and Treasury capable of manipulating the market? Or am I interpreting incorrectly?

Hellasious said...

All markets are always manipulated. It is just a matter of degree and who is doing it.

Since the dotcom crash, the millions of individual speculators/investors have departed the scene, leaving it almost entirely to just a few pros (few by comparison). By definition, it is much easier to manipulate a market with fewer participants, particularly if a few of them are "more equal than others".

Regards

Edwardo said...

Thanks for your answer.

Anonymous said...

From a different "anonymous" _grin_

Great blog -

great thinking

Really, really appreciate your efforts and sharing of your knowledge -

John M said...

Our anonymous informant V at Housing Doom blog recommended this post and I'm not disappointed. We've been tearing our hair out wondering whatever happened to "Rollover Monday," the great bulge of $30+ billion of commercial paper that The City was scheduled to handle (along with all the Northern Rock panic) on the 17th. I think your chart is the smoking gun, although heaven only knows how things held together until late on the 18th (London time) when Ben pulled the trigger.

OK, you're so smart, please tell us what it means that last week foreign central banks bought net $17.34 billion in agencies and treasuries. That's the biggest weekly total since at least early April (when we started following the series). Is that the sound of somebody applying brake really, really hard?

I plan to have links and charts up on Doom giving context in about 3 1/2 hours. Any insight would be greatly appreciated, this number caught us completely off guard.

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Anonymous said...

Thanks for the insightful post.

I have a few kopeks in a money market and the rest of my pittance in gold and energy. And based on your analysis - if I understand it - Bernanke has done me a big favor by shoring up the money markets and sending gold soaring.

Win-win. It's a shame he's bailing out the big banks, but I won't argue with him bailing me out.

Carlos Plech said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
sa said...

OK, I am financially illitrate.

Would someone translate this in English. I think Sudden Debt has a gem here and I do NOT get it.

Antun said...

First time here, someone posted your blog on Mishes site (i cant read that one any more because i dont agree with it).

I was shocked by the cut...i have some cash (unfortunately lol, never thought i would say that) and have no clue what to do, and i think i am not alone, should i go for Loonie(but what bank) or gold or euro...but tell me, since EU and UK might lower their rates too...wouldnt that help dollar?

By the way i am also considering buying a house...i see all this as return of the 70's and alot of old foggies got a nice handout in a form of stagflation so their incomes rose dramatically and they kept on paying little mortgages. Thats my hedge of the day.

Camabron said...

Extremely insightful and informed posts hellasious, thanks for taking the time. A fan from Mexico.

Anonymous said...

Bernanke is clearly an idiot. I wonder if during the meeting instead of wanting to B-52 money upon the masses they decided to provide us all with a wheel-barrow. That's the least they can do since I can't fit all of those 20's in my wallet for a gallon of milk.

Bill Yates said...

Very nice aanlysis, Hell-man. I'll be checking in regularly now. The banks are in real trouble because they can't sell short-term debt, some of which doesn't exist anymore. The Fed has to give them time to find new buyers for new short-term debt. Otherwise, the banks will have to bring their SIVs back onto the balance sheets. I don't think they'll find those new buyers, which will make them realize this debt next year some time. But let's remember there are a lot of market participants out there who really want their bonuses this year, because they know they won't be getting them next year. Hedge funds will drive the market higher the rest of the year to make their nut, then they'll bail in the first quarter. Like Fleckenstein says, the first thing you have to figure out is what's going to happen -- then you have to figure out how people will react to it. We're short-term long, but long-term short at http:/impliedrisk.blogspot.com, where we just got out of our XAU trade after the index moved up 40% in a month. Check me out, Hell-man, I'll be checking you out too. Thanks.

dataSlave said...

Thanks for the insight.

The wacky LIBOR rates look like Sterling not Dollar LIBOR.

Paper money is a confidence game and in the case of the US dollar that confidence is no longer deserved. We've had a reputation as people who pay their debts if at all possible - subprime has fixed that. The massive defaultsa and losses to foreign lenders have burned much of the stock of valuable trust capital built up since Alexander Hamilton repaid our Revolutionary War debts.

We've also had a reputation for not overinflating the dollar by creating too many new ones and diluting the existing stock. The destruction of this form of trust began under Greenspan and looks to continue under Bernanke.

Greenspan now says that the dollar may lose its reserve currency status. That seems to be happening as we speak, with the Saudis preparing to go off the dollar peg. Our debt markets are increasingly subject to outside forces so lower Fed Funds are now translating into higher long-term rates - just like normal countries.

Megan said...

Another blog that I must now visit daily. Thanks implodometer!

Thanks hella for the good info here.

Jenna's Bush said...

...but you can not fool all of the people all of the time

Just the 30% who still believe in Dear Leader.

Comrade Chairman Greenspan said...

Outstanding work as always Hellasious. Have you considered writing for the WSE? I'm not affiliated with them (except as a reader) but I'm sure they would welcome you.

GeKo said...

Just a small observation: this morning I went to a local Bank of America branch here in San Jose, CA and saw an armed security guard posted at the door. Never seen one before in my 10 years living here. Makes me wonder if bankers are getting ready for a Northern Rock-style bank runs.

Anonymous said...

"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time."

FYI, This was by Abraham Lincoln...

François said...

Hi hellasious,

Thes sheer volume of comments here is a living display of the anxiety currently reaching the marketplace. I definitely believe that we'll reaching the end of something in a couple of months. Possibly even less.

Thank you for the great information. I'd be glad if you could give your opinion on a side subject.

Where is the cash flow that feeds the considerable US, british and spanish private security markets (aka CDOs) coming from ? We all have the feeling that the feeding system is currently having some serious hiccups.

Sure we have information on overall balances (both trade and money) for these countries. Below as from the british economist.com magazine:

http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9767578

But I really find it difficult to locate adequate macro-economical resources on this very sensitive issue, the INTERNATIONAL FLOW OF PRIVATE MONEY.

Hellasious said...

re: int'l private money flow data

Such data simply does not exist. Private money is.. private. Furthermore, because some countries have strict FX/capital flow restrictions (eg China) the money flows are illegal and thus hidden e.g. over/under-invoicing for imports/exports.

The best evidence is anecdotal, or by following the "agents". For example, it is no coincidence that major international banks and brokers are rushing to open private client offices in Dubai, from where they can easily service those off-shore hot-money accounts.

Juan said...

François,

This cash flow is credit money; its source is the process of borrowing and lending, i.e. credit money creation; it is not cash as such but the creation of claims instantly considered assets and further money creation on their basis.

Look up 'credit multiplier' for a sense of how this works and then a July 2007 paper The Global Financial Accelerator and the role of International Credit Agencies, from which:

"Legally central banks have monopolies on the issuance of money in a territory. However, as international capital flows are freed, as assets are becoming easier to use as collateral for creating new money and as money is inherently intangible, monetary transactions with important implications for the real economy in a territory can increasingly take place beyond the control of the central bank. This implies that central banks are losing control over monetary conditions in a broad sense.
...this paper will argue...that we are increasingly starting to see the loss of monetary control in economies with stable non-inflationary monetary policies."

Money creation has increasingly escaped control of national central banks and the traditional banking system primarily as a result of financial deregulation and with this the rapid growth, national and internationally, of non-bank banks.

During the 1990s, domestic (U.S. Europe, Japan,,,) money creation through traditional banking, e.g. commercial banks, fell away relative to unregulated and less regulated non-bank banks such as money market funds. As one recent paper by Ingo Walter noted:

"Classic banking functionality, in short, has been in long-term decline more or less worldwide. ... Disintermediation as well as financial innovation and expanding global linkages have redirected financial flows through the securities markets."
(Financial Integration Across Borders and Across Sectors...)

'Huge pools' and flows of claims were created through the dynamics of financialization including dollar recycling, yen carry trade (nearly free money generated by interest rate differentials and facilitated through forward currency swaps markets), mortgage debt securitization, creation of an array of structured products from MBSs to synthetic CDOs to CPDOs, asset price inflation...and so forth.

Excess brought forth excess, an uncontrolled 'nuclear credit fission'.

So, we should recall that credit inflation is also debt accumulation, and that as the total mass of credit money expands a progressively greater mass is required to perpetuate that expansion -- which can only be accomplished through still more borrowing,,,to which there are real economy limits during and after which the process goes into reverse, unevenely at first and then generalized debt deflation sets in,,asset prices deflate towards, to, and past their actual value. In other words, credit money is destroyed.

Anonymous said...

please anyone reading this post, take 10 minutes of your time and go to http://financialpetition.org/ read it. if we have any hope whatsoever of getting out of a world-wide depression of biblical proportion, signing this petition is worth 10 minutes of your time.

and pass it on to your friends that are scared of what they are seeing as well. if enough people sign this we might have a chance.

just a small flicker of hope in an emmense black void.

stormsailor1981

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