Saturday, September 22, 2007

Will Falsettos Become Castratos?

Before I get to today's post, I would like to thank all readers who said such nice things about my writing in the comment section yesterday.
__________________________________________________________

Following the Fed's rate cut, the talk on the Street is now "full speed ahead, we're going to bust right through the old highs and then.. The Moon". With the exception of some greyhairs, the rest of the chorus is simultaneously hitting those forced, falsetto high-C's that can pop eardrums. If you aren't familiar with musical terms, falsetto may also be described as "shrill". More on that later, opera fans...

To use Mr. Secretary Paulson's jargon, risk is being repriced, alright - down. Spreads for the CDX, LCDX and other such credit risk indexes are sharply lower and volatility as measured by the VIX index is also plunging. Bullish percentage on various stock indexes is fast retracing to pre-crisis levels: for example BPSPX, a bullishness measure for the S&P 500 index is nearing 65% after hitting 31% in August (it was 75% in mid-July).

The reason, sing the falsettos, is the kindest cut of all (those 50 bp's) that revealed the existence of the Bernanke Put to go with the existing Paulson Put. Two puts naturally provide an order of magnitude more juju magic against loss. It's like a sub-prime CDO tranche structure: if the Paulson Put fails, the Bernanke put takes over. "They won't ever let the market ever go down, tra-la-laaaaaaa-eeeiiii." I have a Monty Python-esque image of a bunch of Vikings chanting "Spam, Spam, Spammity-Spaaaam... "

Does anyone really believe this operetta? Oh, yes... There are plenty of newly-minted, cash-rich but naive speculators out there, all thumping their chests at the high-roller tables. Look no further than the Chinese, the Indians and all of the Petroleans. Plenty of fast bucks, little market experience and a whole army of western "advisors". Spam, indeed.

Who do you think has been buying most of those structured finance products leveraged 20x, eh? Who has been shoveling fresh money to the hedge funds and private equity funds? It wasn't Americans or Germans, I can tell you that much. I know one guy from the above national group, whose name you have NEVER heard and isn't even a household name in his own country, who walked into a private equity fund and plunked down $200 million. Leveraged at a minimum 5x the fund created a cool $1 billion buying power. The gentleman is not a fool - he is a legitimate, successful businessman who simply knows very little about financial markets, i.e. how the serious unloading takes place precisely after a major break, when the chorus sings "buying opportunity" all the loudest.

My hair - whatever is left of it, anyway - is greying nicely, in a rather attractive and distinguished way (end of advertisement), so I am one of the very few left singing in the lower register. No longer only on fundamental grounds, but also because of the old saying: "The bull climbs a wall of worry". If that worry disappears, as it is rapidly doing now, that's the time to start worrying. And if it gets replaced with certainty, particularly amongst those youngish operatic Wall Street falsettos striving to extend their natural singing range, their customers may very well accommodate them by turning them into castratos - if their predictions turn out wrong.

Have a lovely week-end.

28 comments:

  1. Hellasious,
    You deserved all the kudos you received for your last post. I was going to add some myself, but you posted again.

    I was curious as to whether you had ideas about "next shoes to drop." Your last article says, "If we have another financial crisis," this O/N paper rolling will be a problem...but the way I figure it, the true crux of the problem (all the mismeasured risk and leverage) is still out there.

    So they don't have sell them at a fire sale. Fine. Does that just mean everything slowly unwinds?

    Thanks again for all the great posts!

    ReplyDelete
  2. A lot depends on the bond market.

    If TNX yields keep moving back up towards 5% another steep downdraft in stocks cannot be far behind IMHO.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The next shoe is going to come from the coming apart of the pricing models used to price the mass of structured finance products (CDOs, CLOs, etc). The cut in interest rates has allowed banks and other holders to avoid selling them. Bu they still have to price them in their books.

    As the economy cools and defaults rise, those very same models that produced readings of AAA and 100%(par) are going to start flashing CCC and 60 cents on the dollar. And that will be a very serious problem for balance sheets that NO Fed cut will cure.

    I am in the middle of writing a post on this subject.

    Thanks for your kind words.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hellasious,

    The Fed may have restored an eery sense of calm and optimism to the markets, but I find it very interesting what is going on with the ABX indices now. I think those really represent the beating heart of where this whole meltdown was instigated.

    The ABX indices (AAA down to BBB) got crushed going into mid-August (before the Fed started to "step in"). A partial recovery occurred since that time.

    But now these indices have "rolled over" and are heading downward again (IN SPITE OF THE FED RATE CUT). This is the critical point.

    As with all market trends, they never occur in a straight line. There are always retracements along the way. I really believe that this next downturn in these indices will bring about financial market turmoil an order of magnitude higher than what we experienced in the "first round".

    This time an MBS market breakdown will be combined with a US dollar and US Treasury market breakdown.

    It will be the "real deal".

    Bernard

    ReplyDelete
  5. I agree, your writing is exceptional Hellasious. Thank you!

    However, I disagree with the implication that the last (and perhaps next) financial crisis is US-centric. Nor do I accept the suggestion that Wall St - and their customers - are alone in pushing the envelop on risk - what about London, Shanghai, HK, etc. Hey, even the banks in Peru have been offering 120%+ LTV supported by asset backs.

    There are significant imbalances to a global system that has to be reengineered. That reengineering will impact all players - but we've started the process - the Asian peg to the dollar must be decoupled - now or later, its got to happen. And you know what? I just loved to hear that initial squealing out of Airbus yesterday re the dollar fall .... yes, let's see who blinks first.

    It's all a game.
    jimo

    ReplyDelete
  6. H -

    It seems you are saying that this is a suckers rally. Am I reading you right?

    You last post was blunt, yet elegant. My only quibble is your misstatement of Occam's Razor - All things being equal, the simplese explaination is usually right. But I did like your interpretation of it.

    Jason B

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hellasious:

    With regard to your response in the comments, I think that's exactly right, and look forward to your post. Don't know if you've seen it, but Jim Walker of CLSA has a recent report, "The Apocalypse Begins", in which he predicts that marking to market will come to seem far preferable to marking to model, as the discontinuties in pricing take model marks to zero.

    I enjoy your posts.

    Best regards.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "According to Das' figures, up to 53% of the $2.2 trillion commercial paper in the U.S. market is now asset-backed, with about 50% of that in mortgages.

    When you add it all up, according to Das' research, a single dollar of "real" capital supports $20 to $30 of loans. This spiral of borrowing on an increasingly thin base of real assets, writ large and in nearly infinite variety, ultimately created a world in which derivatives outstanding earlier this year stood at $485 trillion -- or eight times total global gross domestic product of $60 trillion."

    http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/AreWeHeadedForAnEpicBearMarket.aspx?page=2

    ReplyDelete
  9. Ooops. Link again . . .

    http://tinyurl.com/38jc4g

    ReplyDelete
  10. Thanks for the link drpi,

    I had already read the article and I highly recommend it to everyone.

    Das is one of the few true experts in the derivatives field willing to speak his mind.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Great blog - and that's a real compliment coming from me since i'm an insomniac info-hound. I'm an options professional on wall street and i agree whole-heartedly with your views. It's prescient analysis from guys like you that gives the polish on my steel balls that gleam and sheen as i short into equity rallies and buy silver on dips... haha!

    I can't figure out what's going to hit first, another LIBOR dislocation due to ABCP/SIV problems, housing news so bad it murders equity market sentiment, or a geopolitical event related to the fun and games they are playing in the middle east. Let's not forget about foreign debt holders (chinese, saudis, who else?) with their fingers on the DUMP button.

    I don't think the political windbags in washington are going to be able to keep this one below surface until the election. The turd WILL rise to the surface of the bathtub before the election... haha!

    thoughts on the next "most likely" shoe to drop?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hellasious,

    Another one I thought you might enjoy.

    http://tinyurl.com/2cek3r

    ReplyDelete
  13. Things have gotten much simpler with respect to forecasting the future of shares. A severe recession is coming, and therefore, (because the market has not priced in a severe recession-much less something worse) the not so savvy business man who has no business plunking down 200 million at some private equity greed emporium is likely to get scorched and how.

    But wait, there's more. The long end of the bond market is likewise NOT coming down, but rather HEADING UP so relief for the real estate/mortgage market is less than nil.

    All this by way of saying the aforementioned tandem puts are hollow bon bons going forward. Now I fully expect that a series of competitive currency devaluations are close at hand, but likewise these will also not be positive for shares.

    October is just around the corner folks, and the Puetz crash window as of Friday is now open for business. And just because the PTB likely know all this does not guarantee that they can do a anything to stop a little history repeating.

    DId you sell on Yom Kippur?

    ReplyDelete
  14. been reading here for a while now
    its nice to see your popularity grow..your getting out there now

    ReplyDelete
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