Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Exporting Our Way Out of Trouble?

The latest economic palliative du jour is that the plunging value of the dollar and a vibrant global economy, ex-the US, will boost exports and thus help our economy avoid a recession. This concept does not last long under closer examination. Let's look at some charts...

The first one shows US imports and exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP. The US ceased being an net exporter long ago; more recently, exports have been rising smartly, but imports have been rising even faster.

Data: FRB St. Louis

The net result has been a massive trade deficit, now at 5% of GDP, slightly improved from the record 6% but still exceedingly high. If we were Argentina or Russia we would have gone bankrupt long ago; but since the dollar is (still) accepted as a reserve currency we are (still) able to issue dollar denominated debt, purchased by foreigners to finance our imports.

Data: FRB St. Louis

Under normal conditions, the drop of the dollar against other currencies would have made foreign goods more expensive, crimped imports and restored balance. However, these are not normal times: there are two major issues that prevent this from happening.

Firstly, China's exports rely heavily on its pegged currency. The yuan is only very slightly firmer vs. the dollar in the past two years. This mercantilistic approach to currency valuation heavily promotes China's exports and restrains their imports. In the past, such policies were known as "beggar thy neighbor". In today's trade-dependent world we use slightly more diplomatic terms, but the end result is the same: we are running close to $300 billion per year in the red in our China trade balance, or 2.1% of GDP.

The deficit with China was already growing between 1990 and 2001, but thereafter it accelerated at a much faster pace. This can't be accidental - it was as if a switch was thrown and Chinese imports were suddenly allowed to flood into the US.

Data: FRB St. Louis

We can also observe this sudden shift in the number of manufacturing jobs in the US. The sector lost 3 million jobs within just 18 months and has never recovered.

Employment in the US manufacturing sector (chart: BLS)

These events point to a conscious plan, a policy choice to remove manufacturing from the US and replace it with cheap Chinese imports. I don't know if it was supposed to go so far as it has, but it has clearly gone too far.

Secondly, the rise in oil prices currently penalizes the US trade balance to the tune of at least $350 billion per year, or 2.5% of GDP; that's how much we have to pay each year at current market prices to import crude oil. In 2001 we paid less than 0.9% of GDP; within just 6 years oil import bills have increased by 1.6% of GDP.

Our trade deficit, as it stands today, is structural: it is caused by our decision to import from China instead of manufacturing at home (deficit: 2.1% of GDP) and relying on oil imports (increased deficit: 1.6% of GDP). Adding together the two effects (3.7% of GDP) we see that they account for 75% of our current trade deficit. Unless we do something about those two structural factors first, we cannot possibly hope to export our way out of domestic economic troubles.

19 comments:

  1. Dear Hellasious
    will the falling dollar force China to let the yuan appreciate? They are importing huge inflation from US.
    Take care

    ReplyDelete
  2. To my knowledge there has never been a currency peg between major independent countries that has lasted forever - or too long, anyway. Sooner or later they all fall apart because pegging ultimately requires a common monetary/fiscal policy.

    Looking at China and the US today, we have one country that is tightening to stem growth and inflation (China) and another loosening to support a faltering economy (USA). They have diverging monetary policy goals; a currency peg cannot survive under such circumstances.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  3. The theory was that the US was going to let China produce the low level manufacturing in exchange for US high value added products along with intellectual properties(movies,software, etc). Well it hasn't happened the way that economist had predicted because trade is nothing more than economic war and with war you take territory when possible and hold it.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Lots of jobs have been lost in manufacturing. How would you respond to the argument that this is simply part of creative destruction. Here is an analysis: http://www.freetrade.org/node/737

    Executive Summary

    Reports of the death of U.S. manufacturing have been greatly exaggerated. Since the depth of the manufacturing recession in 2002, the sector as a whole has experienced robust and sustained output, revenue, and profit growth. The year 2006 was a record year for output, revenues, profits, profit rates, and return on investment in the manufacturing sector. And despite all the stories about the erosion of U.S. manufacturing primacy, the United States remains the world's most prolific manufacturer--producing two and a half times more output than those vaunted Chinese factories in 2006.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hellasious, I think you may be mistaken to target china's peg as the root of the problem.

    The root problem is America is losing its competativeness. Even without china's peg, those manufacturing jobs will never come back to USA. If it's not china, the jobs might as well shifted to Vietnam, or India, or Pakistan, Bangladesh, Africa, etc which are much cheaper.

    China just happened to be the "representative" of the all trade imbalances.

    You may ask, why jobs never come back to USA? Well, 2 keys here:

    1) USA rank like 44th in the world in Math and Science. Even many 3rd world country have taught Calculus in high school, while many American kids are playing PS3.

    2) Why in the world would American or developed country want to perform the low-value added jobs? Yes, china make shoes (or say slippers) for the mass, but America or developed country should then make better shoes with more comfort and pretty design. Those are higher value added.

    So the focus should be increasing the intelligence of younger americans, and create value added products (to justify for the higher cost of local manufacturing) to justify the higher living standards here.

    Do you want to work as a shoe maker of Slipper and earn $2/hour? Or do you want to be the maker of designer shoe and earn $10/hour?
    Do you want to live a 3rd world country life style, or you want to live in 1st class developed country life style?

    Don't lose the big picture here.

    ReplyDelete
  6. China became a member of the WTO in December 2001. Could that be the switch of which you speak?

    ReplyDelete
  7. I agree with Shawn. Why would USA want to produce toys and textiles?

    If USA want to reduce its trade current account deficit with China, all it has to do is to lift export bans on High tech US products.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I don't think this is a US policy, except accidentally. I think this was a result of China seizing the opportunity that Greenspan gave them by lowering rates. Low rates enabled China to keep their currency really low and get their whole bubble economy rolling along. What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  9. I suspect that there are several, simple but incorrect answers to the problem with manufacturing in the US.

    There are a couple of articles in the archive over on iTulip.com about the FIRE [finance, insurance and real estate] economy as opposed to the PC [production/construction] economy. These might be helpful in providing some answers.

    Brian P

    ReplyDelete
  10. A look at the history of the Yuan Dollar currency cross can be useful.

    http://jessel.100megsfree3.com/yuandollar.png

    ReplyDelete
  11. Happy Thanksgiving to one and all!

    Yes, China's WTO membership had a lot to do with it and it was a decision by the US to allow it that made it happen.

    China is not a mere low value-added manufacturer, or it won't be MOSTLY that for very long. They already manufacture flat panel TVs, consumer appliances and computers and I expect that within another 5-10 years they will be world-class designers of such items, too. Technology leap-frogs benefit the latest entrants.

    Thank you for the links.

    All the best.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Why would USA want to produce toys and textiles?


    Yes, jobs at Wal-Mart are so much better paying.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Happy Turkey day Hellasious. Your economic blog is undoubtedly among the best in the net !!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Hellasious,

    Hoping you had a good Thanksgiving and here's an Aug 2007 National Science Foundation report on high tech manufacturing which adds to your above comment...

    China's share of total global high tech exports has been rising quite rapidly, exceeding that of Japan in 2001.

    See: http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/nsf07319/content.cfm?pub_id=1874&id=7

    Other hand, it's my understanding that most of this originated in the transnational sector so is both of and not-of China.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Hi,

    Day after Turkey day.

    I know that our host has proven that nothing substantial can be done about the US trade deficit unless China and oil are addressed. This was nevertheless interesting:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aXW6MDFmxRFo&refer=home

    Oh and those oft-quoted numbers about US 'Manufacturing Value Added' can be found here (www.census.gov - where else?). This is for those discussing the supposed de-industrialization of the US.

    http://www.census.gov/mcd/asmhome.html

    International comparisons then, Manufacturing Value Added but a lot of other stuff as well, can be found at

    www.nationmaster.com

    Totally aside from US Manufacturing, use nationmaster to look up wheat exports. The numbers in nationmaster (for wheat exports) are 2004/2005. Then you can google elsewhere and see how Australian wheat harvests have come in in the yrs since.

    I think this serves to relative somewhat the howls about what ethanol production in the US has done to corn prices and thus international food prices.

    pat

    ReplyDelete
  16. I put open-angle-bracket a close-angle-bracket (anchor) as well as the proper closing expression around the URLs in my previous post. They appear clickable, but it would appear that they're not (clickable).

    Sigh. The web is great. Except when it's not.

    ReplyDelete
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