Friday, November 2, 2007

The Roaring Nineties

Oil prices are going through their very own era of The Roaring Nineties, leaving many rubbing their eyes in astonishment. Prices have now handily surpassed even the inflation adjusted high reached in 1981-82. But unlike previous oil "shocks", the present rise is not a result of unilateral supply restrictions (e.g. embargoes), but spiking consumption. I have produced a couple of charts to show where the demand is coming from (click to enlarge).

The first chart is regional; Asia - Pacific (red line) is obviously the biggest contributor to the increase, but North America (i.e. mostly the US - orange line) is increasing rapidly, too (SUVs+suburbia). Africa and the Middle East (black line at the bottom) are becoming a factor, mostly due to escalating consumption in Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Europe and Eurasia looks like a virtuous player, but the real reason is the collapse in the former Soviet Union after 1990 cutting its consumption in half. With resurgent oil/gas wealth in Russia and the Caspian region, consumption there is rising again even as the EU tries to go green and reduce demand.

Data: BP

Within the Asia - Pacific region the big player is China, with South Korea and India being significant elements as well. Japan's consumption is slowly trending down due to demographic reasons (ageing population).

Furthermore, these charts are a window to geopolitical events past, present and future. For example, Iran and Iraq possess the second and third largest oil reserves in the world (after Saudi Arabia); if really modern survey and extraction technology were to be applied there, they will be able to significantly ramp up production. Iraq may already be "spoken for" by the US, but Iran is still up for grabs and that's why the US, Russia and China are in a three-way struggle over it.

In the short term, we cannot expect a significant drop in oil prices unless the bipolar US-China economy cools off. Longer term, the only way to free humanity from its hydrocarbon shackles is to realize that, ultimately, the only sustainable energy resource is the Sun (plus some nuclear) and to ease off the "high growth" pedal. Of course that's easy to say, but nearly impossible to accomplish given human nature. And it is easier still for us in the West to preach sustainability; we have already reached a high living standard. I believe it will be impossible to ask 2.3 billion Chinese and Indians to stop their quest for a better life.

What will happen? There are two choices: one is laid out by Michael Klare in Resource Wars (see the sidebar). I am afraid that with the Iraq war and the Iran threats we are teetering dangerously close to taking that road. The other choice is for us in the West to embark on the "moral equivalent of war" and go through the economic upheavals necessary to transform ourselves into lower intensity societies.

I am hopeful that we will choose the second path. I have to be: today is my birthday!

Have a lovely weekend.


48 comments:

  1. it's possible to have both growth and to reduce oil consumption, in fact many countries are way ahead of the USA with this technology due to our backwards oil-friendly government.

    It does requires the US Gov (and hence voters) to stop subsidising the entire oil pipline from crude to autos to highways to subdivisions to centralized shopping mails through inplace laws from local to federal.

    It requires we become a free country again, get ride of the Federal Goverment and have %0 tax rate - with the money in the hands of the people new efficient ways of living with explode, innovation will return to the USA, and USA can lead the world into the next century.

    The best way to move in the direction is to get a guy named Ron Paul elected president.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Happy Birthaday!!!

    A reason that China has such high consumption is that its electrical infrastructure is so poor, and outpaced by growth and demand. Many factories churning out consumer bric a bracks have their own desel generator on premises.

    Jason B

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Hellasious,
    H B first ! On China : the problem is that their demand for oil is increasing but in the same time their energy appetite is very large : to produce one dollar of GDP China needs 3 times more energy than the US. The oil shock is in China and the emerging countires not in the US / UE / Japan countries.
    On the price : their is no shortage of supply; did you experience any difficulty to refill your car ? no . So we come to speculation : never we had so many non commercial futures contracts openened in Chicago. we have a financial mania in oil today
    best regards
    Miju

    ReplyDelete
  4. Happpy Birthday.


    Thank you for your insightful and pithy blog.

    I read every day as I start my trading day.

    ReplyDelete
  5. stupid american driving with their GM SUV and ford truck.

    ReplyDelete
  6. oil companies in china are losing money because of government controled oil pricing. oil companies are trying to produce less to avoid losses. fine example of fake free market and fake capitalism.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hellasious,

    Any chance cellulosic ethanol is going to get off the ground?

    This could be THE solution to replace gasoline.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Happy Birthday to you Sir!!

    btw here's http://www.chartoftheday.com/20070928.htm?T an inflation adjusted chart of oil, it seems the 1980 inflation adj. peak is just north of $100 still.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Happy Birthday! Enjoy every minute of it!

    ReplyDelete
  10. Happy Birthday, Hellasious.

    There are other types of alternative energy besides solar and nuclear. Three that I can think of right off the bat are: wind, hydroelectric and hydrogen.

    The effectiveness of each changes depending on what part of the country you are in. In some parts of the country, multiple forms can be used. The biggest obstacle is the tremendous amount of capital it would take to make it feasible.

    The real problem with implementing it is the privatization of profits and socialization of costs/losses.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Happy birthday. I too thoroughly enjoy and appreciate your posts even though,like most,I don't make the effort to thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Happy Birthday. Good day for one... it's mine too.

    WSJ made me a gift today, outlining how the I-banks are paying their customers to take bad loans/assets off their books for a set period of time. Fruad, fruad and more fraud. It seems we have a new trend in place. Too many speculators not paying attention.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Happy birthday, and thanks for all the work you put into this blog!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Happy birthday Hellasious!

    Okielawyer: hydrogen is not an energy source-- it is a storage medium. We have to use energy in order to generate hydrogen. The sun provides us with renewable energy in the form of solar, wind, biomass, tidal, hydroelectric, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Happy Birthday. Many thanks for taking the time to publish your Blog.

    Brian P.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I can't see your book reco's am I missing something. They aren't on my screen.

    ReplyDelete
  17. M -

    Hydrogen can be produced by anerobic bacteria in the presence of sunlight:

    United States Department of Energy FY2005 Progress Report. IV.E.6 Hydrogen from Water in a Novel Recombinant Oxygen-Tolerant Cyanobacteria System. HO Smith, Xu Q. http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/progress05/iv_e_6_smith.pdf

    Jason B

    ReplyDelete
  18. 1. Miju is correct, the largest part of the multi-year increase has been the consequence of speculative activities, something which becomes apparent when considering:
    a) the change in price formation regimes during the 1980s*,
    b) the increased number and size of CTAs, commodity specific hedgies, long-only commodity funds, ETFs, from early 2000s,
    c) week by week CFTC COT data, crack speads and, to extent possible, OTC trades through, e.g. the ICE (global electronic trading platform which in '01 acquired the London IPE),
    d) production, consumption, storage, refining, data from numerous sources such as Platts, EIA, OPEC, natcos own sites, country sources where, e.g. it can be discovered that China's 2005 consumption did not rise but was flat.

    2. Global context has been one of sufficient supply even as the contrary has been promoted by those who, for various reasons, believe - or would have others believe - that futures' prices must reflect current/future real economy conditions rather than be open to speculative 'animal spirits' which effectively demolish the practicality of efficient market hypothesis whether strong or weak. Much of what Charles Kindleberger and/or Minsky wrote applies here.

    3. While I agree with Hellasious choice of choices, it cannot be overstated that within a profit driven system, green technologies will only become dispersed, put into general use, to the extent that returns are sufficiently high and, within a fiscally stressed environment, state subsidies become increasingly problematic. Simply, if they cannot provide, at minimum, the average rate of profit (not earnings), such technologies remain on the shelf, with the caveat that some few will be used in limited fashion for public relations purpose.
    That is, there are systemic constraints which cannot be wished away.


    * NYMerc - Nymex - opened trade in WTI in 1983; London International Petroleum Exchange - IPE - opened trade in Brent futures in 1988; IPE acquired by Intercontinental Exchange - ICE - in 2001. All of which is to say that what had been price formation by a cartel oligopoly partnership was, during the 1980s, transformed into price formation via futures trade. Different regimes have different dynamics.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Noticing that 'the oil drum' happens to be a cross link, let me congratulate those who have ceased to be true believers in the predictability of 'peak oil'.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I think I can add to the list of renewable sources...

    Sun, nuclear, geo-thermal, and tidal

    ReplyDelete
  21. Happy Birthday from me too.
    Thanks for the blog.

    Dromedarius

    ReplyDelete
  22. Happy birthday! I've got my students reading your blog. *grin*

    ReplyDelete
  23. Happy birthday! Let the forests be green forever!

    ReplyDelete
  24. Happy Birthday, Scorpio.

    Two words for all of you fools who think there is no problem with the crude oil supply, PEAK OIL! Deny it at your peril. As for the predictability of PO, we may already be past peak; we will likely know it that is so with reasonable certainty inside a year. If you think the kind of rise we've seen in oil prices to date is simply due to growth, you are sadly mistaken. Nor is the very steep rise due to refining bottlenecks, old infrastructure and such either. They are pumping at their limit.

    However, there is relief of a sort in sight where high crude prices are concerned. Recall that this blog exists to chronicle PEAK DEBT, and as such it can't restated often enough that we are very, very close to the point when the wheels come right off the bus with respect to the entire system of global finance. The inevitable deflationary bust-and it is inevitable as per the gargantuan amount of money/debt required to produce just one percentage point of GDP attests-is already underway, but the authorities here in Freedom's Land think they can forestall the big slide with more and more paper, but it won't work because the U.S. consumer is just about kaput.

    Between the Greater Depression that comes about as the debt monster unwinds and PO, oil prices will come down like nobody's business. Could we go to $150 or $200 a barrel before that happens. Quite possibly.

    ReplyDelete
  25. why do you think the price of oil is anything other than the result of inflation? gold is through the roof just the same.

    its hard to determine to what extend supply/demand/peakoil has anything to do with the price since inflation is spiking most commodies just as hard..

    ReplyDelete
  26. Happy Birthday Hellasious!

    And thank you for the very insightful blog.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Someone wrote:

    "why do you think the price of oil is anything other than the result of inflation? gold is through the roof just the same.

    its hard to determine to what extend supply/demand/peakoil has anything to do with the price since inflation is spiking most commodies just as hard.."


    The fact that other basic resources/commodities are also in white hot bull markets is no reason to eschew the Peak Oil thesis. While all natural resources are not perilously close to peak like oil, you can be sure that Peak Oil will mean a defacto peak in virtually all other items that require any sort of intensive mechanization for extraction and or utilization such as precious metals, base metals, uranium, etc. etc. Without enough of the only thoroughly fungible energy source on the planet, oil NONE of the other neccessary raw items will be available, at least not at a reasonable cost.

    When crude oil breaks down in price, (as it ultimately will when the planet heads into a severe economic contraction), from whatever price level it ultimately achieves, so will absolutely everything else break down in price that hasn't already done so.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Happy birthday!

    I'm not sure what it would take for many here in Southern California to cutback on their consumption. It isn't necessarily only automobiles but folks with their toys. Take a look at some of the speed boats here in our beach cities or people that go to the river every weekend. It is a double whammy; first you have the major truck or SUV and then you have the boat.

    I know this is a drop in the bucket but even gas at $3.15 a gallon doesn't do much. I'm curious to see a chart that shows demand in relation to gas prices. It would seem that a significant reduction in consumption or purchasing habits would occur somewhere past $5 a gallon. Either way, people here in SoCal are still consuming and not missing a step.

    Enjoy your weekend!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Edwardo,

    Yes, someday there will be 'peak oil' but this is very contingent. To date, the evidence marshalled to 'prove' present/near-term peak has been quite questionable especially if one has taken the time to read and comprehend the various critiques.

    In any event, I agree that the growth as causal explanation for prices is, particularly post-2004, flawed and often advanced by those who remain unaware that differing grades of crude oil are priced in relation to a small number of benchmark oils such as WTI/Light Sweet or Brent, the prices of which for all practical purpose are set by trade in the futures markets, primarily NYMEX and ICE.

    In practice, this means that prices of crudes are open to speculative pressures and do not necessarily reflect real economy fundamentals but can diverge from these.

    Matt Simmons put it very strongly in a December 1998 paper:

    "This does not mean that these speculators are necessarily wrong... Our intention in this report is to highlight that in the NYMEX crude oil market, price is not the beacon for fundamentals. Rather, it reflects the psychology of a small group of financial players. ...
    For all those that fervently believe price movement always reflects fundamental changes in physical markets, the discussion in this paper bears careful reading. Our work strongly suggests that large swings in the funds’ net position in oil contracts on the NYMEX have driven virtually every significant movement of crude oil since the MG position was unwound in early 1994. The single exception was a brief period in the fall of 1996 when physical tightness in the market itself set the price of oil."

    While he was speaking of bearish speculators, the same applies just as well to the other side and, given the available evidence, likely more so over the last years than that somewhat earlier period.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Either way, people here in SoCal are still consuming and not missing a step.

    Realistically, what choice do most of them have? Public transit is not nearly adequate. So how much of gas consumption in Southern California is relatively inelastic? I would guess a significantly large percentage; also that such überconsumption as you describe -- pleasure boats etc -- is a relatively small percentage, but might also be relatively inelastic in that much of it is due to people who can afford to pay higher prices.

    eh

    ReplyDelete
  31. Have a Hell of a birthday!

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