Friday, December 14, 2007

Here There Be Monsters

The phrase “here there be monsters” was used by early European mapmakers to warn of dangerous beasts awaiting in unexplored locations of the Seas.
______________________________________________

The manufacture of CDOs and other such highly engineered financial products was similar to any other industrial process: raw material (loans) came in and were processed into an array of products (CDO tranches). After inspection by the quality assurance department (rating agencies), the merchandise was shipped out and sold to different customers, each according to his needs. The AAA tranches went to pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds and other end-users, while the mezzanine tranches were bought by higher-risk entities such as hedge funds.

But what happened to the left-overs, the non-rated equity tranches that are first to absorb losses, known as "toxic waste"? These contain 100% concentrated risk, extracted from the raw-material loans when they were packaged into the more marketable tranches. Unlike industrial waste, this paper could not be dumped into the environment but had to be sold to speculators willing to bear the highly elevated risk, or be kept by the "manufacturer" bank which then retained the risk itself.

How much of this toxic paper was produced? According to SIFMA the global issuance of CDOs in 2004 - 1Q2007 totaled $1.17 trillion (click image to enlarge). The percentage of equity tranches varied between 2%-15% of face amount, depending on the assets, the structure, etc. Assuming an average 8.5%, it comes to $100 billion and in this credit-crunch environment it is pretty certain it has been totally wiped out.

CDO Issuance Data (SIFMA)

Next question is, who bought them and who is stuck with the losses? As we saw, only two major classes of holders existed for this toxic waste: issuing banks and speculators with a highly elevated appetite for risk. There is no way to know what the split is, so let's assume the holdings were equally split between banks and hedge funds, leaving each with $50 billion of losses.

Here comes the interesting part: so far, banks worldwide have written down slightly over $50 billion for their entire exposure linked to US mortgages and structured finance which is, of course, far greater than just the equity tranches. The conclusion is that there are significantly greater losses coming up for the financial sector in the very near future, since $50 billion covers only their estimated exposure to the equity tranches. Hedge funds are also on the hook for at least an equal amount of losses.

Trying to navigate through the terra incognita of structured finance holdings at banks (and hedge funds) is a near impossibility. They are so heavily annotated with Class II and Class III markings - plus unknown off-balance sheet exposures - as to be the equivalent of "Here There Be Monsters" in old maps. It is little wonder that the credit market has seized: mariners are unwilling to steer by such maps; the few that do, ask for pay commensurate to the risk. Yields on asset-backed commercial paper have moved back to the highs reached before the Fed cut rates for the first time, and risk spreads are the highest in at least seven years.

Discount rates on 30-day commercial paper (Charts:FRB)

Spread between A2/P2 and AA non-financial CP

In the era when ships sail loaded with GPS, radar and SATNAV why does anyone expect investors to jump into a ship captained by a bearded one-eyed pirate gulping rum and yelling: "C'mon ye stinkin' cowards!! Are ye afraid to die?"

37 comments:

  1. A similar post.

    ...or be kept by the "manufacturer" bank which then retained the risk itself.

    Did they keep some of this debt because it could not be sold? Presumably the risk was reflected in the price the (investment) bank paid for the loan? That is, they did their own sort of triage on these incoming loans, or the loans were already rated according to risk before they were put up for sale by the originator.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Moin from Germany,

    thanks for all the insights.

    On page 19 from a Lehman presentation is a nice table showing the
    ABS CDO Market Share


    What i don´t understand is why the Mezzanine tranches are so huge compared to high grades?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Dear Hellasious
    I believe another of these phrases was "Hic sunt leones", used to mark uncharted territories...
    I love the fact that you, being an engineer, are not afraid to make assumptions.
    Take care

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear eh

    That's not how CDO's work.

    The loans are NOT individually classed according to risk to be placed into different tranches.

    Think of it this way: 10.000 loans come in and are ground into an amorphous paste called the "portfolio". The bank assumes an overall default risk expectation for the entire portfolio, say 5%, and keeps it as "raisins" on the side.

    The bank now starts to bake raisin cookies from the paste, i.e. tranches. It takes 75% of the dough, puts in 1% of the raisins and bakes "AAA" raisin cookies.

    It then takes 15% of the dough, puts in another 1% of the raisins and bakes "mezzanine" raisin cookies. Obviously, there are more raisins (risk) per mezzanine cookie than per AAA cookie.

    Finally, it takes the remainder of the dough and the rest of the raisins (10% dough, 3% raisins) and makes "equity" cookies.

    All dough MUST be made into cookies and all raisins MUST be used - you cannot just throw away the raisins.

    If the bank baker cannot sell all cookies made it must eat them itself.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  5. Caro amico Italiano,

    There is no fear involved in making assumptions, if they are interpolated within a set of known data.

    Problems arise when assumptions are based on extrapolating existing trends into the future, like: since mortgage defaults are low for so long they will continue being low in the future..Cardinal sin of science and engineering.

    Arrivederci

    ReplyDelete
  6. "What i don´t understand is why the Mezzanine tranches are so huge compared to high grades?"

    Because mezzanine tranches were not easy to sell either, particularly after ~July - August. And if you can't place the mezz. you stop securitizing, simple as that... so the CDO business stopped cold and what you see is what these guys were "stuck" with at the time.

    Also, look at p. 28 of the same presentation. These guys moved a ton of "assets" into Tier III. As our Italian friend said: Hic sunt leones.

    Thks vm for the reference, by the way.

    Gutten morgen

    ReplyDelete
  7. Investors shying away from "innovative financial products" of the past is one problem addressed in the post. Far worse is what the government is doing now. Giving judges the ability to alter loan contracts (cram down) at will. So far this is contained to subprime, right. But are you willing to put up your money when government can step in any time they please and alter the terms of the contract? I certainly wouldn't. Maybe if you put 30-40% down...maybe. The (unintended???) consequence this will have is that investors will either look for higher yields, investments else where or abandon investing in dollar denominated assets all together. Neither of those outcomes will help the housing market or the economy. Japan tried a similar strategy in the 90's, didn't work out too well as we now know.

    ReplyDelete
  8. "But are you willing to put up your money when government can step in any time they please and alter the terms of the contract?"

    Governments generally and the US government in particular always have the power to do this. It's not just the courts: the International Emergency Economic Powers Act gives the President powers that are difficult to believe until you read them. (Pops right up on Google.)

    After a while, people forget. Back in the 1930s, the US government altered the terms of lots of bonds by eliminating the gold clause, including on its own bonds. The Supreme Court refused to do anything about it. Now people think of US Treasuries as "risk-free."

    ReplyDelete
  9. Yoski:

    Giving judges the ability to alter loan contracts (cram down) at will.

    You must be referring to the new proposed bankruptcy provision. As a (now) former bankruptcy attorney, I fully support this effort. You are leaving out the fact that in order to get access to this solution, the parties have to file a Chapter 13 (consumer reorganization) wherein they will have to be able to make regular payments for 3-5 years (under BAPCPA, most likely 5), give up all non-exempt assets, lose all tax refunds during that period, annually have their finances scrutinized by the court, ruin their credit and be locked out of many jobs for their lifetime.

    This sort of thing used to be called "creative destruction." Now the people most responsible for creating this mess want the weakest members of our society to bear the brunt of the cost (privatized profit and socialized losses).

    You won't get any sympathy from me.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Jack:
    You are correct about the gold clause cases of the 1930s. Nixon "closed the gold window" in 1971. We have had a country of perpetual inflation since 1946. Uncle Sam will alter any laws he wants. We get a new tax law every two years.
    Hellacious:
    It amazes me, a CPA, how few "finance types" understand arbitrage. In 1950, Oskar Morgenstern (OM) wrote, "On the Accuracy of Economic Observations". OM concluded economics was at most a two-digit science. Some humility on the part of economists who think they "know" the CPI to a fraction of 1%, is in order. It's not like computing Pi to 100 decimal places.

    ReplyDelete
  11. H. Thanks for the 'cookie' analogy. VERY useful!

    Brian P

    ReplyDelete
  12. "C'mon ye stinkin' cowards!! Are ye afraid to die?"

    "Here there be monsters"


    Arrh matey. Love it.

    How much of the level 2 assets are sludge? Do we not see numbers because the banks are not saying, because they don't know, or because it's all sterling quality?

    ReplyDelete
  13. I guess banks kept more than 50% of equity tranches.
    The selling comission was so high, that in many cases they could book 5-10% of CDO´s sold. So banks figured they could retain the equity for free and so enabling the entire deal. With the bank/originator taking the equity part, some hedge funds might come around for the mezzanine....
    Unfortunately (or fortunately for structured finance desks) most of this money got payed out as bonus.
    As far as I know those are not refundable.....

    ReplyDelete
  14. Okielawyer:

    I like your attitude!

    I think there can be legitimate concern about unwise government interference with contract. My answer to that is that government interference is probably wise right now, since the consequences of leaving the markets to work it out might be very bad indeed--conceivably, an actual depression. No guarantee that the interference will be intelligently crafted. I don't have any faith in Treasury or the Fed acting intelligently. Congress might do better.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I think the main problem for the CDO investors was/is not the "toxic waste" problem. But the fact that now ALMOST ALL of the "raw material" is TOXIC. The real state prices are declining, and it surely looks like an avelanche. THIS is why all the BUZZ about, not that "little" 100 M$ inital "toxic waste"

    ReplyDelete
  16. I wonder where the big banks' internal risk departments were when the toxic waste tranches started to build up on their balance sheets a few years ago? Out to lunch, or shouted down by the fees generated by the 'CDO manufacturing' division?

    Banks' risk departments are usually conservative and, compared to almost all other organisations, have a superior understanding of risk. I can't believe that they didn't investigate and understand the risks involved when the banks were forced to keep more and more of these toxic waste 'assets' for themselves due to a lack of buyers.

    I wonder if some Banks' Risk division departmental heads have some interesting internal reports filed away for a rainy day...

    ReplyDelete
  17. Hellasious,
    Not only are your entries that of a Mastermind, but you are also really hellarious.
    I came across Hellarious a few months back while looking up someone. I have been hooked since I started reading your entries.
    Thank you for your insight. It has been an eye opener for me and an education also. You are a true teacher.
    God Bless

    ReplyDelete
  18. Second that Hellasious. Clear, concise, and entertaining great writing for non-econ-fi types like me.

    ReplyDelete
  19. ho ho ho! CDO Santa is coming to town. He knows who's been naughty and who's been nice. Did you leave any cramdown cookies and mlec milk for him?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hellasious,
    I also thank you for the raisin cookie analogy. Any chance you could expand it to enlighten me on SIVs?
    Much appreciated!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Re: SIV explanation

    SIVs are (increasingly WERE) mini hedge funds sponsored usually by banks. They bought CDO's and other structured asset-backed securities on margin. Instead of borrowing the margin money directly from a bank or a broker, however, they instead issued commercial paper, pledging the CDOs and ABSs in their portfolio as collateral (ABCP).

    That way they could get better interest rates than what was available at the margin loan market.

    It is (was) a bit more complicated than that because they, too, were structured in tranches, so that investors could choose how much of the SIV risk they wanted to bear.

    It really is (was) a very tangled web. Derivatives stacked one upon the other.

    Regards and thanks to all for your kind words.

    ReplyDelete
  22. ChetsterArthurneverownedatrancheDecember 16, 2007 at 9:24 AM

    With all the talk of write offs and moving things from point a to point b on sheets, what about the sharks?

    How much are these banks setting aside as legal reserves for the inevitable litigation settlements? Many private banks devote a good deal of energy talking their HNW clients into parting with their cash to buy, nay, "co-invest", in the low hanging trancjes.

    The legal fee reserves deserve more attention.

    ReplyDelete
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