Wednesday, May 28, 2008

A Progression of Curves

Prompted by yesterday's release of the S&P - Case/Shiller home price index, here is a progression of curves. All have been indexed so that 1/1/1987 = 100.

First, the index itself.

Data: S&P

Now, let's see how home prices have fared versus inflation (CPI).

Data: S&P, St. Louis Fed

OK, that was pretty interesting. Now, how about adding per capita disposable personal income? This should give us an idea about housing affordability.

Data: S&P, St. Louis Fed


Hmm... we obviously got a ways to go before balance is restored. And with markets always prone to excess, it's quite possible that prices will undershoot.

OK, let's now add one more curve, the crucial catalyst that made this "reaction" go as fast as it did: per capita household debt.

Data: S&P, St. Louis Fed

Any questions?

Well, I have one: judging from the above, is the credit crisis over?

26 comments:

  1. Can you re-do for MEDIAN per capita disposable income? A more striking variance I'd think.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Re: median income

    I could, but then I would also have to include median debt which is a more problematic series. It is obtained from a Fed survey done every few years, instead of regular GDP and banking data.

    Regards,
    H.

    ReplyDelete
  3. There are some talk that official CPI is not accurate. What if you use an older method of CPI computation to compare against housing price?

    ReplyDelete
  4. The way CPI is calculated borders on outright fraud and I have often commented on that. But in this case the official CPI matters because it is used as a way to artificially keep wage and pension demands low.

    In that way disposable income, particularly earned income from salaries and wages, is kept lower than it should have been. Thus big increases in real estate prices and debt become much more onerous.

    ReplyDelete
  5. debt per capita will come down sharply....as a large part will be written off by banks...good news for the chart but not for the economy !
    Best regards
    Miju

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hellasious,

    I have a question re: the total household debt. Does it include
    public debt(i.e. government debt)or is it just private debt?

    thanks in advance

    ReplyDelete
  7. Anon, I thin much of the 8 categories of non-revolving debt is not been written off at all from the viewpoint of the debtor. Even the bank write downs on problematic mortgages on Wall Street are not resulting in the disappearance of the liability as a consumer obligation; collection actions are still being pursued. Ditto with credit card delinquencies that are sent to that growing 3rd-party cottage industry of debt collectors. Those collection efforts impact consumer psychology which will impact how the consumer behaves towards housing, credit & debt.

    Hell, great chart. I think we’re on the verge of another great segmentation of our society, this one around indebtedness...or solvency levels per household, where the use of debt averages, rather than median debt levels per household, is obscuring the situation. More meaningful is to also pull out the millions of households that pay off their card balances every month, as well as households that don’t have mortgages (renters and mortgage-free homeowners). Soon both retailers & job markets will begin to react quite differently to these new segments while co-existing the over-indebted and those immobile due to unsalable homes.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Household debt only includes debt directly owed by individuals, i.e. it excludes government and corporate debt.

    ReplyDelete
  9. to:avl

    You raise a significant point: Just because banks write off loans doesn't mean a debtor's obligations go away.

    The only way to permanently discharge debt (other than paying it off) is to have it cancelled via bankruptcy or have it forgiven by the lender via negotiation.

    Given the recent severe tightening of the bankruptcy laws, I fear the credit crisis will be with us for a long time to come.

    Okie Lawyer may have more insight into this, if he cares to comment.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Here is a very compelling interview with Richard Alford, a former economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    The interview was conducted by Institutional Risk Analytics and is available to read on Naked Capitalism's website.

    It speaks directly to the consumer debt, income and savings-rate issues, and examines recent and longstanding Fed policy in the context of globalization, asset bubbles and the gradual reduction of viable export industry of the U.S.

    Here it is. Enjoy.

    OuterBeltway

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hell, thanks 4 the reply. Like you, I'm a former engineer (IE). You have a good blog...have benefited from your thoughts on energy & oil. Ur maybe more optimistic than I about energy & credit fixes; I’m focusing more on the most likely outcomes, how society will just muddle thru, adjust & adapt, rather than 'fix' (e.g. bank write-offs vs. ensuing hassling of debtor). Global and even national ‘fixes’ are, like diamonds, rare products of unique ephemeral circumstances; graphite is the more common and likely outcome we face.

    Do you know who has looked at energy consumption forecasts for China/India/Brazil & others and extrapolated using neither the excessive energy consumption patterns of the US nor our stupid-auto-centric land development patterns? Are there forecasts based on the smarter land-use development and mass-transit models presented by advanced European nations & Japan? Seems the issue of China/India energy consumption is exclusively over-played in media & blogdom as a geo-politico energy bugaboo (i.e., will China/India make ‘more diamonds’ & ‘less graphite’ when pursuing energy & transportation infrastructure?)

    BTW, kudos to you for hoofing it on bike. Will u do it year-round?

    ReplyDelete
  12. "The Predator State" at Economist's View (May27) goes a long way to explain the demise of the US economy. It's not considered a failure by those who benefit from it.

    ReplyDelete
  13. "

    "I am afraid that a big crisis like this great famine could happen again."

    Greenie, in response to the above, you laughed."

    What else can I say to David Lereah's 2005 prediction of permanently rising house prices due to shortage?

    Don't you see that great famine in debt is contradictory to great famine for food? Just one year back, we were complaining about Americans being overweight due to excessive eating. Now you are seeing great famine. Have you asked yourself the question whether food supply fell so drastically in just one year?

    ReplyDelete
  14. "Greenie is a troll."

    Haha - anyone who contradicts your biased opinion is a troll. How convenient.

    ReplyDelete
  15. FYI, my entire response (posted originally in yesterday's comment section):

    Anders-
    "Greenie, in response to the above, you laughed. If you have anything insightful to think why this is not happening, do share.

    As far as I can see, there is nothing to laugh about."

    Greenie is a troll. He enthusiastically feeds off the suffering of others. He has his own website, but he won't stay there.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Yoyomo:

    Thanks for the mention of the Predator State. There were a lot of good comments. I found this comment to be very thought-provoking.

    I liked this comment. And this one.

    ReplyDelete
  17. H (and all):

    The only way to permanently discharge debt (other than paying it off) is to have it cancelled via bankruptcy or have it forgiven by the lender via negotiation.

    Actually, forgiven debt can many times make a bad situation worse.

    From Wikipedia:

    Another common objection to debt settlement is that debtors whose debts are partially canceled outside the bankruptcy system will need to report the canceled portion of the debt as taxable income. (IRS Publication 908)

    The Internal Revenue Service considers $600 or more of forgiven debt as taxable income. The forgiving creditor must provide the taxpayer with a 1099-C tax form. This form will list the amount of forgiven debt and interest in Box 2. Taxpayers with portions of personal loans forgiven may not subtract the interest reported in Box 3 from the amount of reportable income on this form.

    However, the IRS does not require taxpayers to report forgiven debt if the tax payer was insolvent at the time the creditor forgave the debt. Being insolvent means that the amount of a debtor’s debts are greater than his/her assets (how much money and property the debtor owns). However, the IRS adds that “you cannot exclude any amount of canceled debt that is more than the amount by which you are insolvent.” ([4] IRS Publication 525)

    For example, if a taxpayer is $10,000 in debt and owns $3,000 in assets, he/she cannot exclude more than $7,000 of forgiven debt from his/her income tax. Any forgiven debt over $7,000 that year must be reported as taxable income.


    (As a side note, people should ask why forgiven corporate debt is not treated this way.)

    Compare the stories I heard during an "Ask-A-Lawyer" program with my post discussing the "cognitive dissonance" of the current bankruptcy system in Debt and Taxes.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Greenie:

    Re: Your "overeating" comment:

    Have you ever considered the effect of stress on our collective weight problem?

    I happen to think it has less to do with "overeating" than it has to do with our collective conditioning.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hell,

    Why are the right axis numbers are missing on the charts? I mean what are the units u are using to measure household debt, income/capita,etc. The overall trends maybe right, but without units, the charts look less meaningfull.

    ReplyDelete
  20. "As a side note, people should ask why forgiven corporate debt is not treated this way."

    I can see forgiven debt as a nice way to transfer properties from parents to children without paying estate taxes. Let's say I want to pass my Crawford ranch to my son. I will give him a loan of 5 million dollars with which he will buy my ranch. Then he will stop paying the debt, and I will forgive him so that he can keep the ranch.

    Corporations are perpetual. They do not die from cancer. So, they do not need to transfer assets to their grandchildren after paying some death taxes.

    ReplyDelete
  21. "
    Have you ever considered the effect of stress on our collective weight problem?"

    BS research. I know many overweight people, and none of them seemed particularly stressed. Bored, maybe. Stressed - no.

    Most often they were overweight, because they supersized on the drink during lunch.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Re: units on charts

    As I mentioned right on top, these are index charts with 1/1/87=100. They are meant to compare rates of growth.

    ReplyDelete
  23. thanks Hell,

    I missed the rate of growth part. you gotta watch out for those beginners.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Median household income would make the last graph more interesting home prices revert back to the mean which is the trendline of median household income.

    ReplyDelete
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