California, Texas and Florida have a combined population of 90 million, almost 30% of the US total. Unfortunately, but certainly not unexpectedly, COVID19 cases are once again rising there, after lockdowns were eased recently.
The dilemma is both simple and morally offensive: do we accept more people falling ill and dying for the sake of economic necessity, or do we re-impose severe social distancing measures? To an extent, it’s not a 100% binary either/or question, since an economic depression eventually also has serious public health consequences.
Yet, for most people the immediate danger to health is more tangible and real than a statistical blip in mortality rates a couple years down the road. That’s why I believe that when the current higher cases quickly translate into ICU admissions and, unavoidably, rising fatalities, there will be great pressure on politicians to reinstitute lockdowns.
The result will be a deeper and more protracted recession, lasting longer than the bubbly financial markets is forecasting right now.
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