Russia's invasion of Ukraine may be explained in many tactical ways but the bottom line is this: Russia and China have decided that now is the time to confront and challenge Pax Americana. What do they see?
- A country sharply divided along economic, cultural, religious and political lines. Actually, as Trump’s MAGA campaign made very clear, it all boils down to the sharp divide between the ultra rich 1% and everyone else. (A student of Roman history instantly sees the pattern repeating itself.)
- A line of increasingly weak political leadership, going back at least 20 years to GW Bush.
- The emasculation of American industry, now focused entirely on “software” ( I use the term loosely). Manufacturing has been gifted almost entirely to China.
- A stunning disregard for fiscal and monetary responsibility. It started with the Great Debt Crisis in 2007 and has been going on ever since. The pandemic tsunami of free money is just the final act.
- A massive bubble in everything: stocks, bonds, commodities, cryptos, real estate, NFTs. It has infiltrated every aspect of American life, so much so that even the Fed is terrified of doing anything that will burst it.
Seen from this perspective, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine may have nothing to do with territorial claims. Instead, it may be just a tool, a geopolitical force-multiplying lever to unseat the US from its Empire throne.
The most interesting thing to watch, in my opinion, is China’s ultimate reaction. It always plays the patient Long Game, but at some point it will pull the trigger. Will it be now?
... with these economic sanctions, Putin has relinquished all sovereignty to China. Russia is completely dependent on China now. They've already gained more than the advantages (most likely headaches) that Taiwan could ever provide, no?
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