Sunday, August 9, 2020

Train Wreck Warning

  1.  Fitch just reduced the outlook for US debt to Negative from Stable.  This is the first step to a possible downgrade.
  2. The US dollar is weakening fast.
  3. The budget deficit widened to $865 billion for the month of June alone.  For the 2020 fiscal year it is expected to reach $3.7 trillion or 20% of GDP.
  4. Mr. Trump just signed executive orders extending extra unemployment benefits AND suspended payroll tax collections which fund Social Security and Medicare.

Sound fiscal policy, a top credit rating and a strong currency are the hallmarks of Empire. Lose them and the Empire crumbles.  Just ask the Romans or, more recently, the Brits.