Monday, April 23, 2007

Gone To China
Everyone knows that China has become the manufacturing center of the world, destroying millions of goods-producing jobs in the rest of the world. But how many jobs are we talking about? For the US, at least, lots.
  • I have fallen and I can't get up: within just a couple of years starting in 2001, the US lost 3 million manufacturing jobs. Despite the economic recovery that followed, manufacturing is still shedding jobs.
US Manufacturing Jobs

  • Service with a smile: against this fearful depression in domestic manufacturing, 6.6 million service jobs were created after 2001.
US Private Service Jobs
  • IV drips and lattes: Looking closer at those 6.6 million new service jobs, we see that most of them were created in Health Services, Professional and Business (legal, accounting, temps, etc.), Leisure & Hospitality (includes food establishments). Interestingly, despite popular perceptions of minions of MartMart greeters, Retail created only 320.000 jobs. Information lost -450.000 jobs.
New Service Jobs by Category

I proclaim as self-evident that a highly developed economy that depends on healthcare, lawyers and lattes for 80% of new job creation - while shedding millions of jobs in manufacturing - is in the deepest possible trouble.

All data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

7 comments:

  1. What has been a historical balance of sectors in an economy? I realize that times change but I would think there would be a close extrapolation of how much manufacturing is needed in a society.

    ReplyDelete
  2. This is not our daddy's economy.. heck, it's not even my own economy, going back just 15 years! History has no precedent to show for this, the truly globalized economy.

    China has become a juggernaut for manufacturing, containerization has completely changed transportation and freer capital flows have lowered cross-border capital formation and application risks.

    The real risk is techno- & finance- political: will China accept being just a low value-added, slap together type economy, or will it quickly develop valuable technological and financial capabilities of its own, thus completely emasculating the western world's added value?

    I think it is only logical for the Chinese to rapidly ramp up from manufacturing, towards these additional goals in order to keep as much of the profit as possible.

    Human nature...we are not good at sharing.

    There is a monkey wrench that can be thrown in all of this, however: energy availability. If it is reduced, (e.g. peak oil and climate change) then globalization will perforce need to be replaced with localization.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Today's WSJ (front page)

    -West Texas crude oil faltering as benchmark
    -Possible effects on derivatives/hedging

    Your thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'm 38, Single and hanging precariously onto a finance career at Boeing in Seattle.

    Looking at this chart I should have skipped college and gotten into an automotive mechanics program after getting out of the USMC in 1992.

    Say..Porsche, BMW, or Lexus in Redmond, Jackson Hole, or Santa Fe.

    The truly rich will always need people to serve them. Everyone else can hang...

    Lucky for me, my security clearance keeps my job from going to China. (for now)

    ReplyDelete
  5. About WTI as a benchmark.

    This kind of oil is now essentially non-existent, as is Brent for Europe. The only reason it is still used for benchmarking has to do with the dominance of NYMEX and IPE in oil futures markets.

    Dubai, Russia and several others are eyeing the situation and have often said they will attempt to create new exchanges and oil benchmarks, closer to the heavy&sour varieties increasingly common in the physical trade.

    I view this as a difficult undertaking because it takes much more than a computer network to create an active market. You need to convince most downstream and financial players to participate and they will be under extreme political pressure to stay in NY and London.

    There will eventually be a vicious bras-de-fer between ME producers and all others for this hugely lucrative business.

    ReplyDelete
  6. More information on global manufacturing can be found here:

    http://preview.tinyurl.com/2zam7y

    A major factor in employment decline (versus output) is increased productivity.

    ReplyDelete
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