Thursday, August 9, 2007

"The Complete Evaporation of Liquidity"

As I usually do, I wrote this today for posting tomorrow. Events are running ahead fast, however, and I think it is more timely to post it today.


On March 15 I posted what has turned out to be a prophetic entry titled "Well, What Do You Want It To Be?" , which followed the various stages in securitizing and derivativizing a simple home mortgage up to the fourth degree (CDO, CDS, hybrids, funded vs. unfunded, etc). By that stage the resulting structured instrument is completely unrecognizable vs. the original mortgage and is impossible to price without a long list of assumptions about future default rates, the shape of the yield curve, volatilities, etc. The various institutional owners, mutual funds among them, relied on daily, weekly or monthly indicative valuations from their broker-dealers who were more than happy to oblige by concocting essentially fictitious quotes, since no one was selling, anyway. But the real price is always revealed when you finally have to sell and then the firm quote you may get could be... -95, i.e. no bid - 95 offered. A completely worthless quote that cannot be used to price anything, let alone sell.

BNP-Paribas, the largest bank in France and one of the largest in the world, took the highly unusual and severe step of stopping the calculation of NAV's and suspending redemptions for three of its mutual funds that held such mortgage-related instruments because, and I quote: ``The complete evaporation of liquidity in certain market segments of the U.S. securitization market has made it impossible to value certain assets fairly regardless of their quality or credit rating''.

Let's translate, though it is quite straightforward for an official release:

a)The complete evaporation of liquidity = No one wants to buy, there are no bids.

b) Impossible to value = Brokers/dealers aren't even giving us official indications - too scared of their implied legal obligations.

c) Regardless of their quality or credit rating = Those AA or AAA ratings are on paper only. God knows what they really are.

There are also several highly disturbing facts:
  1. These are plain vanilla mutual funds from a highly reputable bank, not some high-roller leveraged hedge fund. Supposedly ho-hum, safe and with daily pricing and redemption privileges. They are designed for the conservative middle-class investing public who are putting money away pour les enfants, or towards a house down-payment.
  2. The amounts involved are quite large: as of July 27 the three portfolios together amounted to $2.8 billion.
  3. The structured bonds in question are rated AA or better.
The myth of "containment" is now completely and utterly destroyed. If vanilla mutual funds are in such trouble, can you imagine what is happening to the balance sheets of hedge funds? For example, those that bought mezzanine CDO's on margin which now have NO BID? Or, how about those that wrote naked CDS's on those same CDO's?

Here's a question to ask the SEC, NASD and, of course, the OCC (Comptroller of the Currency: Ensuring a Safe and Sound National Banking System For All Americans): Do you have any idea whatsoever what the real exposure is to the hedge funds of the institutions you are charged with overseeing? Especially those large deposit-taking institutions (aka banks) that also act as prime brokers (soup to nuts package deal to hedge funds, from transaction services all the way to margin lending). Because if liquidity has evaporated, what's the collateral ultimately backing those savings and checking accounts worth?

..................................

...and as I finished writing this the ECB had to intervene in the interbank euro money market to provide 90 billion euro at 4% (normal amts. are around 5 billion) because banks started to deny lending to one another, pushing O/N rates to 4.7% - if they could get any, that is. This being an area I know very well, I cannot emphasize enough how concerning this is. The ECB became the lender of last resort, a role that central banks hope to never have to play because it means the financial system has seized up. Likewise, dollar O/N LIBOR rates shot up to 6% from 5.37% yesterday and this is for the biggest, strongest banks like BofA and Barclays. The Fed just did a 14 day repo to add liquidity at 5.25% - no news on the amt. yet. (just in $15 billion).

If the banks are nervous about lending money O/N (just one day) to one another, what do you think they are doing with their hedge fund customers? Calling in margin loans (yen included)? Bigger haircuts on the collateral? Higher interest rates? Pressuring them to reduce debit balances by selling positions? All of the above?

15 comments:

  1. Dear Hellasious

    being an european I am concerned about what is happening. Can you provide the source of the ECB new?

    I have to say that in Italy there is a very poor coverage of the current credit crunch by the media.

    Some news are released from time to time on the financial newspapers, but for the occasional reader I believe they are difficult to spot and put in perspective.

    Moreover some news are just misleading: some two months ago Ilsole24ore (the bigger financial media in Italy) was praising the Florida real estate "opportunity" ... This week they are shamelessly pushing the "Italian Seaside" RE opportunity in the face of a global mortgage credit crunch.

    ReplyDelete
  2. The Bloomberg financial platform is quite fast with their news, online at www.bloomberg.com

    Also, Reuters is quite reliable.

    www.reuters.com

    Have pity on the newspapers - they rely on advertising and they can't really kill their goose, can they?

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  3. I'm not sure I understand the implications.

    In 2001, Greenspan's initial rate cuts were following the market down. That was a recession signal because as economic growth slowed, so did the demand for money.

    I'm not sure what the opposite means. I guess, what it could mean is that money is flowing out of the banks. But where too? The only lower risk invetment is government securites.

    ReplyDelete
  4. 2 corrections : a)the BNP were not plain vanilla for family investment. Their name used the word ABS and up to 30 % could be invested in any ABS. They were not money market fund b) to Kicker : the money do not disappear. Creditors are asking either for safer investments or higher yield. At one stage the higher yield attracts new investors, and that is why the US$ rose temporarily.
    fundamentally the question is important as we know that 49 banks answered to the ECB tender showing that either fear is cuting the liquidity or that somebody is in dire need for cash...
    Miju

    ReplyDelete
  5. The interbank market is crucial to the smooth running of all financial markets. It is what keeps the system on an even keel as those banks with excess cash can lend it out to those that need it temporarily.

    If it seizes up, it does not mean that money is flowing out of the banks. It means that those that need the cash can't get it and must use other methods to get it: selling securities, calling loans, going to the ECB/Fed...It means pressure on markets and the possibility that weak banks can actually go under for lack of cash.

    That's why central banks play the role of "last resort", so that banks don't go under. But central banks don't just give money out with no collateral - commercial banks have to provide treasury bonds, agencies, corporates - even CDO's will do. But here's the rub: what are those CDO's worth, in order to calculate the appropriate "haircut" and give out the loan?

    ReplyDelete
  6. miju,

    So, what do you think it is? Higher yields on corporate and mortgage backed securites are attracting "real money" into the market? Or do you think it's people seeking safer investment?

    The US treasury/EuroDollar (TED spread) used to be a measure of credit risk (bank risk).

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear miju,

    I didn't say they were MMF's - just plain vanilla mutual funds - as opposed to hedge funds.

    However, since you brought MMF's up, I hear that some european MMF's are suffering severe losses from mortgage-related investments (different rules for what MMF's can hold in Europe than the US).

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  8. to Kicker :
    I just said that the world is till full of cash at the moment. on one side you have fearful investors investing in Gov bonds which make yield coming down and in the other side you have brave and patient investor who are waiting to see higher yields to take risk which makes yield rising. In panic day as today both type of investors are diverging strongly and we need in the middle a central bank intervention to calm down. but dont forget : everything as a price, and at one stage the price is appealing and will attract investors. the problem is usually just before it happens.
    To hellasious : ok but in the european MMF that you mention, clearly their manager violated the rules. But I suppose theses cases are isolated. They are more cases with no rules violation wich have invested in OTC, CDO, ABS...and which will collapse for "normal" reasons.
    regards
    miju

    ReplyDelete
  9. Great commentary on the Central Bankers, Hedgies and commercial banks. This is turning FUGLY, but CNBC says in breaking news that there are, "reasons to be opimistic. LOL! Fa get about it!!

    They even trotted out "all hat and no cattle this morning again. El Presidente' must be pissed to have to answer to the common sheeple two days in a row.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I miss your posts at RGE.

    ...but I still read the SD daily.

    you do great work.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Here in Finland, it is very entertaining to see the media trying to explain that everything is kind of OK, that the ECB's intervention is not a cause of worry, etc.

    At the same time, a few days ago, there was a piece of news telling that one of the biggest pension funds already has so much investments in hedge funds. I do not recall the percentage hedge fund make of total assets, but it certainly was not insignificant. And they seemed rather proud of making clever investments..

    And the local financial paper claimed yesterday that the US credit problems have nothing to do and that the GDP growth will continue, if not accelerate.

    Yes, we should not be that hard on the press, but sometimes I think the press is not really doing what the public expects it to do.

    Keep on your good work, it has helped me to understand the world of finance etc, as my own education is in humanities and engineering.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Good article Hellasious.

    It could be the beginning of THE CRASH but might be containable for a while yet.

    BNP Paribas is one of the biggest names in fund management but also in extreme and exotic options and other derivative activity - a fact that concerns me as they will have created super-leveraged funds on the back of the Mutual Funds being suspended - this may be the driver for the suspension. ie. they have to avoid a "close out" on the leveraged side as that would bring the whole pack of cards down.

    The ECB stepping in to "provide liquidity" ie. as lender of last resort, is serious but at least it was at a rate relatively tight to the market (4%) - but the volume was immense.

    I haven't been following the credit crunch that closely so at the moment that's about all I can say.

    On a more speculative note, I do wonder what will happen today as it could be a very black Friday (markets have a habit of crashing on Friday's) if there is a wider panic. The problem, as you know, is that the whole "financial system" is illusory in nature and therefore a wide failure of confidence or the inability to keep the financial loops and circuits functioning could bring it all crashing down in a very chaotic fashion.

    I am not sure that the Power That Be have everything they need in place to be able to handle a collapse at the moment - this may of course be wildly wishful thinking - so there maybe a bumpy few weeks before the markets pick up in September and the big crash comes in...... perhaps October.

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