Monday, October 8, 2007

Assets , GDP and Debt

I have been saying ad nauseam that the US economy has become increasingly "asset-ized" and "financial-ized". A quick way to judge if an asset class is becoming overvalued against the economy's ability to produce goods and services is to examine the total value that assets represent vs. GDP, so without further ado here are a few charts.

First, the total value of stocks and Real estate vs. GDP for the US.



















Data: FRB, World Federation of Exchanges
  • Total US stock market capitalization is now 151% of GDP, a percentage exceeded previously only during the bubble in 1999-2000. This ratio is double what it was in 1994, before the starts of the massive rally which culminated in the historic bubble. For comparison, Alan Greenspan made his famous "irrational exuberance" speech in 1996, when the ratio was at 110%. Stocks are not cheap currently, by any means.
  • Real estate valuations are in uncharted territory - all time highs, at least on a annual basis.
  • The sum of the two asset classes as a percent of GDP is also at an all time high of 380%. In other words, after stocks plunged in 2001-02, it was the turn of the real estate bubble to come in and save the day for the asset economy, and thus keep the party going.





















  • The "party" kept on going because not only was the credit punch bowl not taken away, but it was brimming with debt hootch: Total debt to GDP rose to the highest level ever.



















  • We see that debt/GDP went through four cycles of expanding faster/slower growth (blue line). The "debt junkie" economy apparently needed bigger and faster "hits" of debt to keep functioning. I have marked the chart below with the four cycles and a trendline.



















  • It seems that in the past 2 years we may - just may - have finally broken the pattern of constantly expanding debt acceleration cycles. It does not mean that there is less debt, or even less debt vs. the overall economy; but it does mean that its growth is finally slowing down.
As the process of credit expansion slows down total asset prices will have to ease off. Perhaps we may experience the opposite of 2000-03, i.e. have another stock bubble to balance the collapsing values of real estate. I am sceptical of this possibility because global stock market capitalization is now back to the all time high vs. global GDP. Stocks are far from being undervalued, all over the world.



















Data: IMF, World Federation of Exchanges



31 comments:

  1. you are unearthing informational treasuries carefully hidden from unsuspecting public by wall street ponzi schemers.
    since assets are nothing but claims on discounted future free cash flows, your graphs prove that these claims are being diluted rapidly

    ReplyDelete
  2. Stocks are far from being undervalued, all over the world.

    The question is whether sentiment about equities, which seems to be broadly positive at the moment (how deep this positive sentiment is may be questioned, e.g. volume has been generally on the light side), will (continue to) overcome concerns about valuation and bubble-ness. Currently it seems that growth is good enough in almost every market/region that equities remain attractive (enough). We will see.

    eh

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks you for your comments.

    These charts are not meant to predict imminent events - they span too many years. Bubbles form because unsustainable events keep occurring well past "rational" limits.

    Interesting remark about relatively low volume in markets. I had prepared a piece on that but deleted it because it would have seemed too much like short-term market advice. But do this:

    Look at a 15 year monthly or weekly chart of the Dow and you will notice that the market took off in 1995 with very heavy volume. The sell-off followed after a two year period of distribution (prices churning back and forth in a range but with high volume).

    Likewise, the whole period between 2000-now could be interpreted as a huge distribution pattern, where prices have changed little overall but volume has remained at the same levels.

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  4. Bond Vigilantes -- another interesting blog I found, somewhat of a bearish tone.

    eh

    ReplyDelete
  5. A few questions:

    1. If you chart aggregate interest payments vs. GDP over time, what would it show? Which matters more: total debt or total interest payments, and why?

    2. Of the total debt shown in the graphs, what portion is consumer debt?

    3. Few mainstrean commentators have picked up on the huge increase this year in credit card debt. How long can this trend continue before consumers reduce spending?

    ReplyDelete
  6. The last chart is very telling. It is widely assumed that we arent in a stock market bubble, but is that really true? Its the EM's that are frothy

    ReplyDelete
  7. Look at the growth rate of total debt minus growth rate of GDP. Debt has outpaced GDP for over a decade. Incremental debt required to generate $1 of GDP, over 5 years, is over $5, was $2 not too long ago.

    ReplyDelete
  8. On the question of P and I v. GDP if one assumes the applicable rate is the 10-year (not applicable, by available) then IO is 17% of GDP (nomnial) and 21% in real terms (all time high). If for some crazy reason debt actually had to be repaid, and lets assume the term is 10-years, then P represents 44% of nominal (al time high), and 52% real (nedd I say it again)

    ReplyDelete
  9. and next time I will spell better. sorry

    ReplyDelete
  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Is there any statistics on the marginal interest on debts?

    If the the margin interest of debt is lower than the marginal returns on assets, won't it be optimal to continue borrowing?

    ReplyDelete
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    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
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    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
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    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
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    naughty america vip -
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    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
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    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
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    ReplyDelete
  19. seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    orgy sex parties -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
    rectal rooter -
    seduced by a cougar -
    she got pimped -
    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
    squirt hunter -
    tamed teens -
    teen brazil -
    teens for cash -
    teen topanga -
    texas twins -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
    virgin teen lesbians -
    wild fuck toys -
    all internal -
    american daydreams -
    asian 1on1 -
    asian parade -
    ass masterpiece -
    ass traffic -
    backseat bangers -
    bang boat -
    black cocks white sluts -
    boob exam scam -
    bookworm bitches -
    border bangers -
    bubble butts galore -
    college fuckfest -
    college wild parties -
    couples seduce teens -
    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    hot campus teens -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
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