Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Dude, Where's My Bubble?

The 1999-2003 boom-bust in stocks and the more recent "event" in real estate has left most people thinking that markets always form and pop bubbles. "Where's the next bubble going to be?", is a common question these days, even by major-bracket investment house analysts. As I noted in a previous post, one of them even used the absence of a retail investor-driven bubble in US shares as a contrarian reason to recommend their purchase. Odd as it may seem, people seem to be hooked on bubbles.

Certainly, it's a big world out there and if you look at each market separately, across all asset classes and regions, then yes, there are bubbles and bubblettes forming and popping all the time. Last year the bubble in copper prices sadly caused people to be electrocuted when they attempted to steal high voltage transmission lines. A few months ago there was a bubble in the construction of corn ethanol distillation plants, which drove the price of corn higher. Severe droughts have caused a bubble in wheat prices. And there is a bubble forming in marine transportation shares, chiefly in bulk carrier companies.

But the biggest current bubble of them all is undoubtedly China - world class, global scale. I am not going to repeat what is going on there - we all know. I will isolate only two aspects:

a) The bubble in Chinese share prices is caused primarily by local ignorance of the very basics of investing and market economics. "China is in dire need of financial expertise", says Alan Greenspan in his new book and he adds, "...Chinese banks lack the professional expertise to judge what enables a loan to be repaid...To the extent that there are a lot of bum investments, part of the measured GDP is waste and of no value". These are very strong and direct warnings from a man who is otherwise famous for Delphic inscrutability and constant hedging of all pronouncements. (The Age of Turbulence, p. 307-308).

The fuel for this ignorance-driven bubble comes from the huge pool of hitherto stagnant bank deposits, formed after years of very high saving rates (40%+). After earning low rates of interest for years, they have now been unleashed unto the stock market. Well, as the saying goes, a few will make tons of money and the rest will, sadly, acquire "experience".

b) The PBoC is in a bind. After years of explosive monetary growth (20%+) which fortunately did not result in much inflation, China is finally and suddenly faced with two kinds of inflation at the same time: rapidly escalating consumer prices - chiefly for food - plus asset inflation in shares and urban real estate. They must have known it was coming (they have been raising interest rates and reserve ratios for months), but a pegged exchange rate removes the bite from their monetary policy bark. If China does not abolish the peg to fight inflation, it will eventually have to raise interest rates so much that will create very predictable negative effects for borrowers and banks.

In addition, if inflation is not combated right now, it will become embedded in peoples' expectations and result in constantly higher wage demands (structural inflation) - a clear problem for an export economy heavily reliant on labor cost arbitrage. With the "coming-out" Olympics due in 10 months, the political establishment may soon face a stark choice: a restless urban population squeezed by inflation vs. lower profits for business. If it comes to that, higher wages will win by a landslide - this is a country where communist roots are still very visible: Mao's portrait is on almost every banknote.

The Chinese government must allow the yuan to float freely, right away. China's is no longer a small, vulnerable and isolated economy; it is a major factor in the global economy and needs to adjust its currency accordingly. If it does not, it may soon find that politicians from the US and the EU will succumb to rising popular cries for the imposition of punishing import duties. The election cycle is a burdensome mistress, particularly if the domestic economy (eg in the US) is rapidly slowing down and scapegoats are needed.

Which takes us back to the "bubble" theme. So far China's authorities have not been effective in popping its asset bubble through half measures. I fully expect the next step is going to come soon and it WILL be effective.

So... there's your bubble. Don't go anywhere near it, unless you are the one carrying a big pin.

39 comments:

  1. i think china will 'solve' its asset inflation by freezing prices which will cause additional problems and cause a bigger crash. i dont see communist raising interest rates or de-pegging from the dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Excellent article and summary.

    ReplyDelete
  3. ok so the next question is : what if China "collapses" ? China has been a massive exporter and a growth cutter in the western world, China is not a leading engine for the world economic growth. The only risk is financial : will China sell her T bonds to recapitalise her banking system, pushing up US bond yields ? big question
    Miju

    ReplyDelete
  4. Oh no... China has not been a "growth cutter" for the western world.

    What China has done is export "deflation", just as Japan did to a lesser degree until China took over about 5-6 years ago. This has kept interest rates radically down in the west, permitting other bubbles to form there, mostly in real estate.

    This is coming to an end because China can no longer afford it, i.e. its own domestic inflation is spiking.

    When the yuan gets de-pegged we're going to feel it, big time.

    Japan is next, by the way.

    ReplyDelete
  5. China has be appreciating its currency gradually for sometime now. I don't a drastic change from that policy except that they might quicken the pace a little.

    ReplyDelete
  6. But...nothing before next August and the Olympics are over....right? I hear this a lot and I am not sure I buy it, but if America can keep its market pumped up, China has a trillion reasons why it can do the same.

    ReplyDelete
  7. this is end the economic cycle inflation. it will go away. I do not think deflation will stop in western economies. you will need to find a different wolf.

    ReplyDelete
  8. A dramatic revaluation of the RMB would reveal just how thin profit margins are and how little pricing power China Kettle, Dryer, and Scale has.

    That will expose the huge non-performing loan problem in China's banking system. The banking system is pretty much a ponzi scheme with a lot of new loans being used to pay back old loans.

    If you find yourself riding a tiger, how do you dismount?

    ReplyDelete
  9. let me explain in few more sentences - monetary inflation (expansion of money and credit) gets followed by price inflation with a lag. When central banks see price inflation, they start to respond with monetary deflation. There is a phase, when monetary deflation and price inflation coincides leaving everyone (even you) confused. We and the chinese are in that spot now.

    Similarly, at the other extreme, there is a period, when monetary inflation and price deflation coincide. That is when Fed creates most damage for the economy, because they can cut interest rates as low as they want, but there is no price increase.

    Increase in wheat, copper and corn prices is caused by end of the cycle inflation (effect of rampant monetary inflation by fed and alike). I am surprised that you thought they were linked to global warming, or draught. I expected you to know better than of USA Today.

    G.

    P. S. When house prices were going up all over USA, I talked to my friends from different cities and each one of them had a local story about why house prices were going up there, just like corn, wheat, copper stories placed in the media.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Dear Hellasious
    "growth cutter" : I know it is a bit simplistic. But the US and Europe are major importers (compared to world imports)transmitting the baton of growth to export partners. On the effect of interest rates..you are right but if we need to buy chinese goods in order that they help us to maintain our rates low, may be there are other direct solutions without going through China...
    best regards

    ReplyDelete
  11. "Last year the bubble in copper prices sadly caused people to be electrocuted when they attempted to steal high voltage transmission lines."

    I propose that individual responsibility and personal choice led some people to choose to steal live wire copper without using safety equipment which led to their electrocution deaths.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi Hellasious,

    Top post.

    From an european perspective, dollar, yen and yuan have entered some kind of desperate "competitive devaluation" process.

    Should the Fed decide an overly aggressive set of rate cuts, the chances are that the dollar will plunge accordingly, yuan and zen spiralling down their way in order to follow suit.

    The Euro position would become unbearable. Since it would be the only stable currency among in the picture (industrial countries). Unsustainable.

    Even for Germany and the Netherlands.

    IMHO the current trade globalisation would not withstand such a crash of the international currency system.

    Brussels would, for a time, gather support of all of its members on some politically aggressive retaliation steps against China.

    Can we reasonably expect BB to save the currency. But can we expect a sound reaction by both the Chinese and Japanese authorities?

    I have some serious doubts about it.

    François

    ReplyDelete
  13. A mistake

    Can we reasonably expect BB to save the currency and a sound reaction by both the Chinese and Japanese authorities?

    I have some serious doubts about it.

    François

    ReplyDelete
  14. This year China is expected to account for a larger share of the world's total GDP growth than any other country in the world---including the US.

    This being the case, that makes China's FX rate paramount in the functioning of the world economy.

    How can the world's central bankers still ignore the fact that the yuan-dollar FX peg is creating a severely imbalanced global economy? It's sheer madness....

    Bernard

    ReplyDelete
  15. Here is a very interesting tidbit about how the credit default swap market is driving the plunge in underlying asset prices:

    In a letter to clients last week, John Devaney, chief executive of United Capital Markets, a troubled broker-dealer and hedge fund manager in the asset-backed securities market, said: “Liquidity is horrible and prices are in the range of five to 50 points apart sometimes just hours or days apart.”

    Mr Devaney added that the existence of the nascent derivatives market for such securities, in the form of the ABX index, had exacerbated the sell-off and uncertainty over true valuations.

    “The CDS market and its size has contributed greatly to the volatility. As prices dropped, there were – and still are – those forced to sell, taking off leverage.”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0
    /cb1e9288-769c-11dc-ad83-0000779fd2ac.html

    Could we see the CDS market create a plunge in the stock market (just like happened in the MBS market)?

    Bernard

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hellasious,

    I'm curious. In your estimation, how much of the volume traded in the stock market is currently driven by hedge funds (especially the "quantitative" computer-model types)?

    Bernard

    ReplyDelete
  17. How much volume by hedge funds...

    At least 70%. This includes hedge fund equivalents, i.e. brokers and banks trading for their own account, private equity funds, etc. This is a global phenomenon, by the way.

    Individuals are abt. 5% and the rest are major end-user institutions like pension funds, insurance cos., mutual funds, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Thank you for that answer Hellasious.

    From this I can draw an extremely important conclusion:

    1) If 70% of all trading in the stock market is now conducted by investment banks and hedge funds and....

    2) If the balance sheets of investment banks and hedge funds are financed mostly with borrowed money

    3) Then it logically stands to reason that the entire stock market is currently being propped up where it is right now simply because the investment banks and hedge funds have ACCESS TO BORROWED MONEY FROM THE CREDIT MARKET.

    I have estimated that the investment banks and hedge funds have collectively added $4.5 trillion in new debt during the past 4 years.

    This leads to the next question (which would determine the fate of the stock market):

    Under what circumstances would the credit market begin to sharply curtail its lending to investment banks and hedge funds?

    Would a US dollar meltdown (foreign capital flight) cause this to happen?

    Bernard

    ReplyDelete
  19. Credit is now margin credit, one way or another. Industry no longer borrows as much so loans are made to financial firms against financial collateral. The longer and more stocks go up, the more credit can be issued and more securities purchased. A bit of a Ponzi scheme, really - or more appropriately, a bit like 1929, when money was mostly lent out for margin purposes, through the broker loan market.

    And just as now the underlying economy had already started to cool off and real estate was one of the primary culprits. Particularly speculative real estate in Florida.

    But it is different this time. China is going to buy everything, haven't you heard?

    ReplyDelete
  20. Sure looks like a Ponzi scheme.

    I wonder when the credit markets will finally cut off lending to the investment banks and hedge funds. For that would be the end of the stock market.

    Glad to hear China is going to step in and buy everything. We need someone to step in and take over for our exhausted US consumers that have been doing all the "heavy-lifting" (supporting the world economy on their shoulders).

    Right now we see massive over-investment on one side of the Pacific and massive over-consumption on the other side.

    Bernard

    ReplyDelete
  21. Hi Bernard,

    I should that I agree on what you said.

    Equity markets are sustained with credit cash. In the US, this fed-driven WS money. In China, this even worse since this sometimes personal debt financing over-valued stock purchase.

    This exactly what stock market are not supposed to be, debt-driven.

    Poor countries are financing rich countries's final consumption. This is exactly what debt/credit is not about. Credit is supposed to finance investment. Not consumption. Rich people are supposed to finance poor ones. Not the other way round.

    Won't last for very long, I expect.

    François

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi Francois,

    What makes everything so incredibly surreal right now is the continued willingness of Wall St. firms to borrow money to buy stocks (to sustain the stock market) as well as the continued willingness of the foreign central banks to keep printing money (to sustain the US economy). This is absolute madness.

    I now understand why all the investment banks (in collusion with Henry Paulson) decided to deceive the public about the mark-to-market losses on their assets in their last quarterly reports.

    It was essential in order to preserve the ability of the investment banks to continue to borrow money to buy stocks (in order to keep the stock market artifically propped up).

    If they reported their true mark-to-market losses, the credit markets would have shunned their debt, cutting off their borrowing capacity, and in turn crushing the stock market (because they wouldn't be able to finance their own stock trading or the hedge funds' stock trading).

    Goldman Sachs alone has $567 BILLION in assets that they did NOT mark-to-market. Their equity base is $39 billion, so it would only take a loss of 7% on those fictitiously valued assets for the company to be WIPED OUT.

    Bernard

    ReplyDelete
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    her first dp -
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    his first facial -
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    his first huge cock -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
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    backseat bangers -
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    college fuckfest -
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    diary of a milf -
    dirty latina maids -
    fast times at nau -
    first time swallows -
    ftv girls -
    gangbang squad -
    gay blind date sex -
    gay college sex parties -
    give me pink -
    her first anal sex -
    her first big cock -
    her first dp -
    her first lesbian sex -
    his first facial -
    his first gay sex -
    his first huge cock -
    housewife 1on1 -
    housewife bangers -
    huge boobs galore -
    insane cock brothas -
    just facials -
    latin adultery -
    little april -
    little summer -
    met art -
    milf seeker -
    milton twins -
    more gonzo -
    my first sex teacher -
    my friends hot mom -
    my naughty latin maid -
    my sex tour -
    my sisters hot friend -
    naughty allie -
    naughty america vip -
    naughty bookworms -
    naughty drive thru -
    naughty julie -
    naughty office -
    neighbor affair -
    porn stud search -
    prime cups -
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    simpson twins -
    so cal coeds -
    sperm swap -
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    tamed teens -
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    teen topanga -
    trixie teen -
    twinks for cash -
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