Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Benny, The Naughty Easter Bunny

The size and frequency of the Fed's interventions are increasing with each passing day. I wonder how people can still call this a "free" market with a straight face. Let's call a spade for what it is: privatizing profits and socializing losses is crony capitalism, pure and simple.

Keeping with the spirit of the holidays, it's like the Easter Bunny lets a few chosen children eat all the good eggs, but feeds those tainted with salmonella to the children of a lesser God. Naughty bunny...

Naturally, the Fed's hoppity-hops injected shots of optimism to markets teetering on the edge of a nervous breakdown last week. Many speculators are apparently willing to go bottom fishing, projecting an economic rebound in six months. I think they are wrong; their optimism is just one more in a string of bad predictions that got progressively worse: robust growth, moderate growth, Goldilocks, slowdown, no recession, mild recession..

There are two main reasons for my negative prognosis, as far as timing of bottoms goes:
  • The labor picture is still nowhere near as bad as it gets in even a typical recession. After 1950, recessions have resulted in year-over-year losses of 1.8 million jobs, on average. We are currently showing gains of 860.000 jobs versus the same month last year (see chart below, click to enlarge). If we are in a recession right now, we still have a long ways to go.

  • Consumer spending accounts for three quarters of the economy. Despite real wages stagnating after 2000, households went on a shopping spree because they could borrow to their eyeballs, mostly against real estate equity.
Annual Change in Retail and Food Service Sales

With easy credit now turned off, growth in consumer spending must come from (a) more jobs (not in the cards, as we saw), or (b) significantly higher wages (not happening).

Conclusion: don't hold your breath waiting for an economic rebound. Oh, and I would stay off Benny's Easter eggs for now...

14 comments:

  1. H,
    Last month I posted an item from the Feb.18 edition of Businessweek (P.6 Stealth Bailout) stating that govt owned or backed agencies had injected $840 billion into the mortgage mkt but was shot down as being impossibly inflationary (didn't Countrywide borrow $54 billion from FHLB of Atlanta?). It seems more and more likely that it was an accurate item from BW because now even the Fed is openly moving in that direction. W/respect to bond yields exploding, if desperation drives the Fed to inflate at home the Treasury can revert to borrowing in foreign currencies which it briefly did in the late 70's. It may have no choice soon as the $ loses reserve currency status. BTW Market-Ticker-Denninger.net posted that the $ is assuming a carry-trade role. A bright shiny Easter Egg (Salmonella free) for your thoughts especially w/regard to money supply contraction/expansion.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "I wonder how people can still call this a "free" market with a straight face."

    LMAO

    We don't have free markets, I'm as negative about equities as you are but in the USSA one cannot rule out flat out manipulation. The result of this folly unfortunately will eventually be a massive flight od capital leaving the USSA. The rot is on the vine.

    ReplyDelete
  3. As an avid free market advocate I must usually point out to others that there are few markets in the real world that qualify as free( The spot price cannot be significantly affected by any one market participant) but this latest case of Wall street robbing the public is particularly egregious. Incidentally, I see that Paulson is suggesting that we need to close the barn door which someone unlocked a few years ago. Shear(no mistake) genius, one should always drive the train from the caboose.

    ReplyDelete
  4. The hiatus had me speculating about a cause:

    Best Case scenario- Paulson sent a limo to Hell's house last week because the Masters of the Universe finally admitted to themselves that they needed a rational, informed advisor to this crisis.

    Worst Case scenario- Hell decided the situation was hopeless and fled to an undisclosed remote Pacific Island.

    Hell is back; civilization continues.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Welcome back. My daily reality dose went from bill cara to bob hoye to market ticker and then on to sudden debt. Over the past week, I was feeling like something was missing. Thank you for taking the time to write this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The dollar is falling, so a Dow Jones recession has nothing to do with a Doug Jones paycheck. This process will continue.

    ReplyDelete
  7. where is john galt?

    ReplyDelete
  8. I just encountered what I thought was a crackpot theory: The Plunge Protection Team. Given actions in the funding market, I am starting to wonder about how the dow finished up on days when my models and intuition had it finishing way down. Could these guys actually be trying to manipulate the index closes in the "interest of national security"?

    Bennie is bending the dollar over a barrel and if that causes oil and Sovereign money to abandon Treasuries then they better start work on the Dollar Protection Team. I think Cheney really send to the Saudis to plead with them not to dump the dollar assets they hold and not to reprice oil in Euro.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hell,

    have you ever heard of a situation where a country went thru a nasty recession and yet unemployment did not drop very much?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Sir, I am just getting into your blog and its point of view. I came across it on while researching a post on my blog. However, that isn't the why of this post. I also frequent a blog called jontaplinsblog and we have had quite a few discussions that would be greatly benefitted by a slant such as yours. If you would be so kind as to drop by and comment, I'd appreciate it.

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