Wednesday, June 18, 2008

The Trouble With Money

In broad terms money has two characteristics:
  • It is a means of exchange between goods, services and labor and,
  • It stores wealth.
I believe that events during the last several years are leading to money's emasculation as a storehouse of wealth. The reason, in my opinion, is that a wide variety of other, traditionally non-monetary instruments like real estate, equities, derivatives and commodities are becoming monetized.

The link between real estate and money is today quite obvious and direct: the wide securitization of mortgages created trillions in new marketable debt instruments, i.e. money, by the classical definition of credit expansion. But what about the others?

Share markets have become very liquid and deep, helped along by a dizzying variety of index and exchange traded funds, SPDRs, etc. What's the practical difference between "stocks" and "money", if the former can be transformed into the latter at a moment's notice with minimal fuss and transaction costs? And the same can credibly be said about commodities that are traded on major futures exchanges.

Other active derivatives, for example credit default swaps (CDS), can also behave like near-money. Indeed, by their very nature CDSs create money out of thin air, since they are a series of payments against stripped credit risk, i.e. a bond sheep in wolf's clothing.

What does it all mean for "traditional" monetary aggregates as published by central banks? It means they are becoming practically meaningless - there's too much of the "other" money around. That's my definition of the shadow banking system, by the way.

It also means that if/when financial markets move significantly lower there will be a lot less money around than before, with unforeseeable consequences for the economy. Simply put, we have all gotten used to lots and lots of money sloshing about.

P.S. From our "other economic indicators" dept. (the same that looks at food stamp participation, for example) comes this news bit: Delta is cutting more flights. Orlando is getting hit hard. Since this is the one-company town that Mickey built, it does not take much guesswork to deduce why Delta is cutting service there.

14 comments:

  1. Great post as usual. No one has a handle on this sysem. Its far to big and complicated for anyone to understand

    ReplyDelete
  2. The ratio of money to food is flux. The ratio of labor to money to food is two "fluxes". Add in some other nice things like housing, healthcare, and attempts to insure future needs are met (saving). Its a lot of fluctuating ratios to constantly monitor.

    Errors made in calculating ratios by some. Money to be made off the confused. Needed to add complexity to the already complicated to make more confused people to take advantage of. Debt! Wall St!

    So many layers of abstraction....

    Anyone have any info on building hydroponic greenhouses to grow food with the essential amino acids? Or water purification? I'm devolving back to the basics ;)

    ReplyDelete
  3. You can't have it both ways. If we are going to get used to less money then money will be an excellent store of wealth... pretty much like in all recessions, and certainly like the GD.

    ReplyDelete
  4. jkiss is on to something.

    Hel, your post gets thinking that there may be a link between the de-leveraging and commodity prices.

    When leveraging was working, there was wealth that somehow kept commodity prices low. Such that commodity price increases were hidden by increases in wealth created by leveraging.

    Now that financial institutions are having leverage valuation issues, there's nothing to keep commodity pricing from rising to their "real" levels.

    Maybe this is obvious to others, but it just came to me. What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Every generation needs to rediscover what money is ...as HEL says there are all these new kinds of money. In that respect its different this time. However once you twig to it and group all "assets" with similar characteristics and look at them in aggregate hopefully you once again get to see whats going on before you lose any surplus money you had stashed in the wrong place.

    Discloser...I don't know whats going on. But with the help of people like HELASIOUS I'm beginning to get somewhere.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Nice post. As the FED/government destroys the value of regular money it's not particularly useful as a store of value anymore.
    That's why capital/wealth is looking for a new home. Personally I own a mix of bullion metal (classic money), real estate(=my home), stocks (=401K/Roth) and $25K in cash (Citibank).
    The more crap you own the more you got to worry about if that stuff is still gonna be around tomorrow.
    Is somebody going to rob my home and steal my bullion coins? If I put them in a safety deposit box will government steal my gold (FDR 1933)? How bad will real estate tank and how much will the school district raise property taxes? Is the stock market going to crash and burn? What if Citibank and a couple of other loser banks go under and overwhelm the FDIC? Can I kiss my $25K good bye?
    AAAAAHH I am having a panic attack! Guns and ammo, I am heading for the hills!

    ReplyDelete
  7. Right on. I always go back to the definition of inflation (and deflation) being always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. With so many forms of quasi-money out there we could have deflation when it goes poof even with M0-M3 going up.

    I sort of see the Fed's TAF as an attempt to replace dying quasi-money with higher quality quasi-money. Think bleeding trauma victim getting pumped back up with a few pints of "O" neg.

    There's so much of the crap out there though. It's hard to tell what's happening to it in aggregate. About the only thing I'm certain of is that it's going to be a bumpy ride.

    ReplyDelete
  8. I can see consumerization of the storage of wealth as commodities or at least the most hype of the commodities - oil. I'm not savvy enough to play with oil futures but I know that at some point in the future as gas/energy prices become more volatile there will be schemes to consumers to buy and store gasoline at a certain strike price with certain gas stations. Maybe something like a gas station bank.

    Oh, I can see this happening after the shortages start. Instead of hoarding in an unsafe place like your garage or somesuch. Gas stations will presell you an amount and you can bypass all those shortage lines and the pay-as-you-go suckas to withdraw some of your investment from the "members only pump". Eh...It could actually be a good idea as things get messier as a form of rationing and price controls. But...

    Then the system becomes corrupted once more with the onset of "fractional reserve" gas stations and there's a run on the pumps. Riots, explosions, hangnail, jock itch, racoon warts and warm beer all over again.

    Only partly joking as I think there's some merits to the idea, I bet we'll see some form of it in our lifetimes. If not, I just unleashed it into the collective greed unconscious to enrich the executives at CitiGas.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Are you suggesting that all of these new forms of money will go thru deflation?

    ReplyDelete
  10. There's a third characteristic of money: It is convenient to use.

    That's why we convert what we do and what we have into the units of currency of the day. It's much easier to exchange dollars (or any other currency) for goods and services than it is to exchange, say, a car for a room full of furniture.

    But that's now what brought me here tonight.

    In the very beginning of this experiment in self-governance, way back in the late 18th century, the founders determined that it was the people, through their elected representatives in Congress assembled, who should decide certain issues which had long plagued man.

    One of those issues was who should be able to declare war, and send off the fathers, sons and brothers to fight in a conflict. They rightly saw that since it was the public that did the fighting and dying, it should be the public's representatives (the Congress) who should decide on these weighty matters, and that there should be a Declaration of War before any citizen was committed to fight.

    They also took notice of who had the power of the purse, and reserved that to the people as well. They even wrote it into the Constitution : "Congress shall have power to...coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and to fix the standard of weights and measures."

    We are now at a juncture where everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. We are involved in a war that was based on a huge pack of lies, and it is costing us dearly; financially, spiritually and politically. Depending on who is making the estimate, the financial cost is somewhere between $1 Trillion and $3 Trillion.

    After 1971, we let Congress create a situation in which almost everybody and anybody can create what passes for money. Everytime anyone uses a credit card, or gets a loan to buy appliances or a car or a house, "money" is created.

    It isn't really money, of course. It's really credit...but it's fungible, just like money. And it's spent and traded just like any other form of money.

    Problem is, credit is only as good as the ability to pay it back, plus interest. That's where the wheel has run off our wagon.

    Real estate loans were made based on inflated values that were never attainable, at prices that could never be reached again (the "greater fool" theory in spades). All the while the promulagtors made off with billions and billions of dollars, and left in their wake trillions of dollars that can never and will never be repaid. Something's going up in smoke soon.

    Now the Congress wants to shift all the burden of that unpayable debt onto the backs of the Ameridcan public. All we can do is lose in this deal, and pay for it while we forego needed improvements to our way of life. This only helps the bankers, and it only hurts the public.

    ENOUGH!
    *******

    We really need to **establish**a national bank which shall have the sole power to coin the money of the United States.

    Never again should we permit debt to masquerade as money.

    Money should be created by the national bank and spent into circulation as the need arises. If a transportation network needs to be financed and it will yield more than it consumes, then the money should be appropriated for the purpose.

    The same goes for energy projects. IF we need to build more dams for hydropower, or nuclear power, or solar or wind power, then it is money well spent and it will return more than was spent on it, For all but the terminally innumerate, that is a go!

    We need to start now.

    ReplyDelete
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