Friday, September 19, 2008

Iodine Swabs

The world's central banks and the US government are trying to engage in closely coordinated financial salvage operations in order to create as much psychological market punch as possible. In effect, they (well,ultimately we) are assuming worthless debt to keep the lend-spend system going for a while longer. By doing so they are just swabbing iodine onto a gangrenous limb, instead of doing what is really necessary: massive doses of antibiotics and/or outright amputation.

The problem is quite simple, all over the West: there is too little earned income at the foundation of the economy to support massive debt and thus overinflated asset prices. Looking at American households alone, in 1978 their total debt came to 79% of total employee compensation (wages, salaries, pension contributions, etc.). Today, this figure has more than doubled to 174%.

By their current actions the authorities are attempting to prevent the inevitable, logical and even healthy process of debt elimination and asset price correction that would restore some semblance of balance between debt and income.

Let's say it once more: let the market take care of prices and instead concentrate policies on boosting earned income, i.e. create well-paying jobs. The rest is fluff.


  1. How many days do you give it before today's crack cocaine high wears off? GOT GOLD and SILVER because you are going to need it.

  2. Would love to hear your thoughts on the 2am press release announcing a ban on shorting financial stocks.

  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. I'm unhealthily thrilled to be reading this post, which translates my "like putting a band aid on a hemorrhage" philosophy.
    I, too, have been seeing this coming for quite some time, and your crystal clear analysis of why it's happening, which a high school student can understand, shuts the mouth of other pompous economic morons who have been spouting mathematic lingo at us for too long.
    As far as living in the favelas goes, well, hope that some of us have land to grow our vegetable gardens on.

  6. In fact, these bailouts make things worse in the long run. The taxpayer is ultimately on the hook for these baiouts. Rasing taxes (inevitable) will reduce the net income of all of us.

    Jason B

  7. "Rasing taxes (inevitable) will reduce the net income of all of us."
    I don't think they will raise taxes directly. Our government will continue to spend at the current pace piling debt upon debt until something breaks. Then they will print their way out of the problem. Anybody holding dollars or getting paid in dollars will ultimately pay the price for this insanity.

  8. Hell,

    Do you still believe in a deflationary scenario?

    In another front I have the feeling that there is some intent to contain the problem until the 4th of November...

  9. What we are seeing is the redistribution of debt.

  10. In fact, these bailouts make things worse in the long run.

    This is the reason why liposuction is much more popular than good old exercise.

    Many of society's problems boil down to a short-term outlook, e.g. global warming, tainted milk, greenspan's bubbles, addiction to oil, etc.

    We live in an age of me-isms, self-centredness and greed. The prognosis for the species is not good.

  11. I have a question :
    how can the Federal Reserve keep giving handouts if the country's total debt is so colossal ? Isn't that like financing debt with...debt ?
    are things really this crazy or have I missed something ? Please explain.
    Anonymous I who doesn't really want to be anonymous but can't bother to figure out how to be a Google Blogger.

  12. TED spread is still *huge* this morning.

    They've nationalized billions of dollars of toxic debt, opened TAF's for Joe's PayDay Emporium and Brokerage and arranged shotgun marriages of ailing financial firms. The stock market is on the "dead cat bounce" euphoria at the moment.

    Where does this get better exactly? It seems to me the conditions are now set for a Japan-style economic malaise.

  13. To answer anonymous' question about paying debt with debt.

    This may be obvious to most, but the basic plan is to keep printing dollars. This makes it easy to pay the "big number" debt. It also makes you poorer.

    Sure you can pay off debt with more debt, but *eventually* entities that buy treasuries will demand higher interest rates.

    It's more complicated than that, but just understand that's a *very* simple explanation. Don't try to make judgments or form opinions based on that explanation.

  14. okie, I think the haves and the have mores only want to redistribute the bad debt.

  15. Hel, Still believe inflation isn't down the road?

    I'll bet these maneuvers by our appointed "experts" is surprising you. Not me, as I said before they will keep on robbing you until you fire them.

  16. "It seems to me the conditions are now set for a Japan-style economic malaise."

    If that is the worst that it gets I'll be stunned and euphoric.

  17. It looks like USA goverment is trying to defeat mathemathics...
    wow, what a fierce struggle!!!

    Next move from Bernanke and Paulson , citing a looming threat to US national security,
    will be to prescribe mandatory injections of a gov special virus in all computer systems and calculators, so that 2+2 equals 5. Better: 2+2 equals what they deem appropriate for Wall Street health.

    What a show! Too bad it is a tragedy for all of us.

    Take care.


  18. My Dad came to the States and got a nice middle class job working in the US military-industrial complex. Now he's retired down to the medical-industrial complex in Phoenix, providing good middle class jobs to doctors and nurses. Paid for by SS and Medicare.

    Well, nobody can argue with a personal anecdote. But it does belie you notion that govrnment policy has not been to provide "well-paying jobs." It's been doing it in spades for a long time. But ultimately they're government jobs that don't produce any real wealth (well, except for the F-15 pilot who may be grateful his missile didn't accidentally detonate too close to his airplane.)

    The problem is goverment. Period.

  19. "can't bother to figure out how to be a Google Blogger."

    On Sudden Debt you can just use "Name/URL" and make up a name.

    I was going to give kudos to Edwardo's rant on Disaster Porn, but you have to do that whole Google/Blogger thing so I ran away.

  20. H,

    While you were on sick-leave I posted a blog on Aug 15th with a very short review of:

    The Origin of Wealth, (Beinhocker)


    Entropy and the Economic Process, (Georgescu-Roegen).

    During the past week I asked a couple of Economics professors if they knew anything about the FIRE, (Finance, Insurance and Real Estate), economy). No, they did not!!!

    Neither did they know about Albert Bartlett - Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis (Am J Phys. 46. 876-888, 1978).

    And these guys have been instructing economics undergrads for quite a few years. Makes you wonder.

    Brian P.

  21. Thanks for answering my question.
    Economics is actually the only class in college (a long time ago) where I got really good grades when I had no bleeding idea of what I was spouting on about, only to see my grades plummet as I felt that I was getting a grip on the subject.
    Actually, I DID understand that the point of financing debt with debt was to print (worthless) money that would then be hawked on all of the financial markets, or used in increasing quantities to buy invaluable commodities like oil. But...currency itself is a debt. Which means that when your creditor finally decides that what you're offering him is worthless, then you're up shit creek without a paddle.
    Italian, I love you. What a great comment.
    Personally, I think that favela living sounds more and more attractive. I know several people who are just scraping by, but who are extremely happy, and finding meaning in an existence with little money.

  22. hellasious, would you PLEASE help the public understand that while the feds tout this drama today will get "paid back to the american people because the government can afford to hold the foreclosures, fix them up and sell later at a profit" IS NEVER GOING TO's simple math Hellasious...I sell bank owned property - this is how it works - upside down mortgage, owner doesn't/want to pay for anymore, government btakes over the bad loan, goverment sells at a lLOSS...look at the stats on the list/sale price of bank owned property over the past 10 yeras...the ONLY entity that makes money on foreclosures are private investors who flip. The government (HUD, FNMA, FRMC, VA & the likes) have not shown by staistics that they MAKE MONEY ON SELLING THEIR INVESTMNETS, their record shows they are the only sector that is willing to take a loss on selling. How the government can actually suggest that the public debt will be repaid or even make money is a flat out lie. Get this out there please, this is a total an outright scam (another one) by the big business...
    The Foreclosure Hunter

  23. Okie lawyer offered that "What we are seeing is the redistribution of debt." I'm sure this is not your intention but that sounds like the sort of super spin I'd expect from a government agency.

    What we are seeing, in fact, is the public being placed in the position of being the last investor in the biggest Ponzi scheme in our nation's history.
    Whatever crap may be spewed about Hammerin'
    Hank and Helicopter Ben's plan-which is to move toxic sludge from Wall Street's neighborhood to yours- please know that what is in fact happening is that you and I are being made to play the part of the last investor in a grand pyramid scheme.

    Are you listening America? Are you even awake America? It might not have to be this way, but it will if you sit on your collective asses.

    There is a lot more to say about this, but John and Jane citizen, most of whom had nothing to do with
    Wall Street's criminal and criminally stupid activities
    are assuming the role of the biggest bag holders of all time.

    Now here for your viewing pleasure is my letter to Barney (Barmy) Frank. Feel free to use it with any legislator who is taking part in the great, if not greatest scam in the nation's history.

    Dear Congressman Frank,

    Today you were reported to say,

    "It will be the power — it may not be a new entity. It will be the power to buy up illiquid assets," Frank said. "There is this concern that if you had to wait to set up an entity, it could take too long."

    The illiquid assets you refer to are illiquid for good reason. They are worthless. There is no market where there is no value. What, pray tell, do you propose to pay for these worthless assets with since the funds do not exist to pay for them? In any case why would you pay money for something the rest of the world treats as worthless? From the start this initiative reeks of a catastrophic boondoggle for all but Wall Street and the financial industry in general. From what coffer do you propose to shower enormous sums of money on Wall Street in exchange for the worthless paper? The funds aren’t there, which means you will have to endorse monetization for the purchase of worthless paper. This will have the purpose of cheapening the value of the U.S. dollar which will adversely effect hundreds of millions of people who are blameless in Wall Street’s self inflicted debacle. Finally you run the very great risk of imperiling the U.S. Bond Market as your proposed action almost guarantees a downgrade of U.S. Sovereign debt. Please reconsider your present course of action. It is neither fair, efficacious, or sound.

  24. Edwardo:

    I guess you missed my point. The longer statement that I had written before was: conservatives/Republicans have always tried to scare us with higher taxes on the wealthy as a socialistic "redistribution of wealth;" but what this amounts to is its polar opposite -- the redistribution of debt of the wealthy to be place on the backs of the poor and middle class.

    Thai says "in order to make information useful you have to make it wrong." The phrase "socialism for the rich" proves his point. In order to make this policy understandable to the American mind, you have to say that policy of "socialism for the rich" is part of a left-wing political ideology, when, in fact, it is part of a right-wing political ideology.

    What we are seeing is really seeing is a form of fascism. From Encyclopedia Brittanica:

    "Philosophy of government that stresses the primacy and glory of the state, unquestioning obedience to its leader, subordination of the individual will to the state's authority, and harsh suppression of dissent. Martial virtues are celebrated, while liberal and democratic values are disparaged. Fascism arose during the 1920s and '30s partly out of fear of the rising power of the working classes; it differed from contemporary communism (as practiced under Joseph Stalin) by its protection of business and landowning elites and its preservation of class systems. The leaders of the fascist governments of Italy (1922 – 43), Germany (1933 – 45), and Spain (1939 – 75) — Benito Mussolini, Adolf Hitler, and Francisco Franco — were portrayed to their publics as embodiments of the strength and resolve necessary to rescue their nations from political and economic chaos."

    Put this together with "warrantless wiretapping," the endless "war on terrorism," and the Republican argument of a "unitary executive" and what do you have? It's not socialism.

    The problem with using "socialism for the rich" is that it confuses the uninformed voter to believe that this is part of a left-wing plot when, in fact, it falls in line with right-wing political ideology.

    By using "redistribution of debt" I was trying to make a veiled reference to "redistribution of wealth" which is one of the right's arguments against higher taxes on the wealthy (which they claim is part of communism). Well, if "redistribution of wealth" is part of Radical Socialism (i.e. communism), what does that make the "redistribution of debt?"

  25. Thanks Okie for that clear headed analysis, what you said is basically what I believe but when arguing it helps to have the important points spelled out clearly and logically. I guess being a lawyer has its advantages.

    Off topic; interesting quote from William Lind:

    Here we see the central reality of American politics shining through the smoke and mirrors. America has a one-party system. That party is the Establishment Party, and its internal disagreements are minor. Both McCain and Obama are Establishment Party candidates. They agree America must be a world-controlling empire. Both men are Wilsonians, believing we must re-make other countries and cultures in our own image. Neither man conceives any real limits (political, financial, military or moral) on American power. McCain and Obama vie only in determining which can drink more deeply from the poisoned well of hubris, around which, unremarked, lie the bones of every previous world power.

    Such is the “choice” the American people get in November. As a monarchist, it is sometimes hard to keep from smiling.

  26. Dink,
    Do you have the link to Edwardo's "rant", I'm curious. Much obliged.

  27. I was lamenting if the US govt is doing us - foreigners - a favour. Meaning that if these firms would have gone down the conventional way via bankruptcies, a sizeable chunk of those losses would have ended up at foreigners hands, outside of US.

    Now all that is paid by US taxpayers.

  28. It seems to me that the inevitable outcome is near: total failure of the current system of massive debt (government, corporate, and personal) that masquerades as "economic growth".

    And, thanks to tax policy that favored the extreme incomes associated with the CEO's at the helms of major financial institutions (those that took their "cut" of the supposed "growth" during the past dozen or so years), the income disparity in America is reaching an all time high. At least they got their (oversized) piece of the pie! As for the rest of us, we get an oversized slice of financial pain in the coming years.

  29. Kind of leaves us who saved via our 401k with a tough choice:

    1. Cash out now and lose 40% in penalties and taxes


    2. Leave it alone and when retirement comes lose (40%?) via higher taxes and inflation

  30. "If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!"
    Hank and Ben's amazing dollar machine-

    have your meat and pudding, THREE TIMES A DAY FOR THREE EASY PAYMENTS OF 19.99!

  31. I see, Okie lawyer, and thanks for clarifying your position which I wholeheartedly agree with. You might find the writings of Jim Willie of interest as he often discusses what he calls the "U.S. Fascist business model" Mr. Willie writes rather poorly, but the information he provides and the scope of his coverage make reading his poor prose well worthwhile.

    And with the most recent grand financial putsch in mind, I offer the following quote from historian John Steele Gordon.

    "It sounds like Paulson is asking to be a financial dictator, for a limited period of time."

    By the way, yoyomo, the link to my blog is

  32. Regarding household debt in America, sometimes averages can hide non-linear (perhaps fractal?) patterns.

    Does anyone know whether it is a few who have most of the household debt or is it a relatively evenly distributed in the population (now even more evenly distributed since it started falling on the government's shoulders)?

    If it is a few, I would be curious to know if it is these few who are also the largest contributors to the current administration?

    Does anyone have actual data?

  33. The devaluation of the US dollar will hit hard those countries with a dollar peg, who are already facing very high inflation.

    Some of those countries, such as Egypt, are already politically unstable.

  34. Financial Coup D'etat

    "Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency."

    The limit is $700B *IN HOLDINGS*. So buy a mortgage from fund X for $300k, sell it back to fund X for $150k, then buy it from fund X for $300k, then sell it back for $150k. Hank has authority to steal an infinite amount of money.

  35. From my blog


    Here are a few ideas for you to consider that I hope will persuade you to immediately contact your Federal legislative representatives to demand that they REJECT the passage of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's bailout plan.

    The Plan, which is being hurried through Congress as I write, is, I believe, being propelled by fear similar to that which allowed the government to drastically subvert the nation's legal landscape after the destruction of the Twin Towers. Today the specter of an impending collapse is being used to extort and usurp absolute financial power. What is ocurring right now is, for all intents and purposes, an old style fascist putsch. A putsch is defined as "a plotted revolt or attempt to overthrow a government, especially one that depends upon suddenness and speed." What could be more sudden than what is occurring now? And what could be worse than the likeihood that this is an inside job?

    Be very mindful of who brought the present desperate state of financial affairs on the nation in the first place, namely the financial services and banking industry who were aided and abetted by elected officials from both parties. Now be equally if not more mindful of the fact that the same groups who engineered the original sub prime swindle are the very same same ones who will most benefit from the plan now being foisted on a pliant Congress. No less a historian than John Steele Gordon has observed that..." Paulson is asking to be a financial dictator..." what with provisions in the bill that would bar courts from reviewing actions taken under its (Paulson's) authority. Think about that for a moment. Now think again.


  36. Deja vu.
    Why does the same thing repeat itself under the Bush administration?
    Yes yes yes, it was done with all the right intentions, to save us all from evil forces, disaster, etc. But it seems that greater disaster follows.
    Don't have a good feeling about what is happening.
    Too much too fast happening, that does not seem be naturally so.

    Be on the lookout again for WMDs again.

  37. Testify brother.

    As you say it is all really stunningly simple. People earn too little and have to borrow too much. Eventually income levels can no longer support the mountain of debt and the whole edifice begins to crumble. The only good news is that this calamity is likely to end up consuming not only the 'little people' but also the elites who constructed and maintained this system for the past 30 years.


    This is a better plan than the Paulson Ponzi scheme where YOU are the last investor in the pyramid.

  39. Two comments to continue the discussion.

    Be patient with me as I quote at some length from the newspaper clipping that was pasted onto the frontispiece of my grandmother's precious recipe book (widow at 40 in 1923 in a small rural community with my 2 year old mother to take care of).

    "This Too Will Pass

    Clip this out. Paste it in the family Bible or in some other important place where your children or grandchildren or great grandchildren may see it in the years to come. Let them remember it was said in the year 1933 when the whole world was in the fourth year of the worst depression humanity had ever known, and that every bank in all of the 48 states in the U.S.A. was closed.

    In all the doubt there is one thing certain. Make a note of it. All this will pass away, as other troubles have passed -- the great depression after Waterloo, the Hundred Years war, the Seven Years war, the Thirty Years war, and all the other wars and all the other panics.
    REAL WEALTH is in things, not in printed paper, green or yellow. The THINGS are all here. The prosperity we are bemoaning will come back, greter than ever.
    And again the millions of little people will forget all about their government and all about their problems. A handful of big people will begin printing again tens of millions of shares of worthless stocks. The little man that steals a hat will go to jail. The big man that prints the tens of millions of worthless shares of stock will go to Europe.
    And this will again be GOOD,GLORIOUS OLD AMERICA.

    I do not think that we will pick ourselves up so easily out of this mess this time. Prosperity is no more just around the corner as real wealth is only in things. But that could fill up books.

    The next comment in the next post.

  40. Next comment :

    With reference to the comment on financial fascism, I can only say : you get the government you deserve.

    Witness :

    At the Washington D.C. zoo this summer, in front of the lion's "cage", I found the following sign :

    "You may think that our animals have only a little space and that they might be unhappy, but think about it : if you were given the choice what would you rather have :
    a life where you never knew hunger or famine, where your meals appeared regularly, where, if you were sick there was a good doctor to take care or you to make sure that you wouldn't die OR
    a life where you never knew where your next meal would come from, where hunger and sickness were the common lot, etc etc.

    I'm sure you get my point.
    A country where you can see that written publicly in a well known institution, where nobody reacts is a county where... people are domesticated to death.
    The U.S. citizen, with all too few exceptions, has been ripe and ready for a fascist government for a long time. Can we really blame the government for wanting so eagerly to take care of us ?

    The worst part is that when I told my educated, cultivated European friends about this sign, they didn't even understand why I was alarmed...

  41. Deb wrote:

    "I do not think that we will pick ourselves up so easily out of this mess this time."

    We didn't the last time either. It too WW2 to pull the nation out of the Great Depression.

    "With reference to the comment on financial fascism, I can only say : you get the government you deserve."

    Well, saving YOU doing the following, YOU will deserve what's coming.

    Calling or fax your representatives immediately and inform that you want them to reject Secretary Paulson's plan and instead offer the following respective alternatives found at the links below.


  42. Deb wrote:

    "I do not think that we will pick ourselves up so easily out of this mess this time."

    We didn't the last time either. It too WW2 to pull the nation out of the Great Depression.

    "With reference to the comment on financial fascism, I can only say : you get the government you deserve."

    Well, saving YOU doing the following, YOU will deserve what's coming.

    Calling or fax your representatives immediately and inform that you want them to reject Secretary Paulson's plan and instead offer the following respective alternatives found at the links below.


  43. Edwardo, I humbly apologize for implying that getting out of the Great Depression was a piece of cake ; my mother and grandmother lived through it, and I know that it was not a piece of cake.

    I will make that phone call, but I knowingly used YOU instead of WE.

    I picked up and left the U.S. thirty years ago, already scenting what was coming. I have paid a very heavy price for being an expatriate, like all expatriates do, but I don't regret it.
    And, after tergiversating for many years now, I am finally ready to renounce my U.S. citizenship, following the November election WHATEVER THE OUTCOME.

  44. Investors hoping that the US government's proposed $700bn Troubled Asset Relief Program to buy banks' toxic assets will signal a bottom for equities may be disappointed, says David Rosenberg, north American economist at Merrill Lynch.

    "Keep in mind," he says, "for all the bottom pickers out there, that after the Resolution Trust Corporation was established in 1989 it took a year for the stock market to bottom, two years for the economy to bottom, and three years for the housing market to bottom.

    "And recall that after the Financial Supervisory Agency in Japan was unveiled in 1997 the stock market there didn't bottom for another five years and it's an open question as whether the economy ever did manage to stage a sustainable recovery.

  45. Hey there, would you sign and pass this anti-Paulson petition along? Thanks

  46. Watching the events in the past few days left me the distinct impression that the wolves have gotten much stronger, presumably after the feeding frenzy of the last years. So strong that they are brazenly demanding that sheep be fed to them.....

  47. LMAO i just need what iodine means so i can put it for lab report HURRY UPDATE THIS !


  49. We now "have the equivalent of a 'war on bear markets,' one that will require an international, coordinated attack on free markets."

  50. Are you guys followingthe TED spread this morning?

    Does anyone know if there is a particular number which would be a product of the actual TED spread X a particular length of time that signifies 'checkmate'?

    It seems Asia has finally woken up to the risk regardless of what the US government tries to do.

  51. First Aid Povidone Iodine Swabs to help prevent infection in minor cuts, scrapes and burns. DIRECTIONS:Hold the swab vertically, with the color band tip upwards. Hold in the center of the stem with one hand and at the color band
    james wilkins

    Link Building

  52. WAY OFF TOPIC (though I wonder if there is an analogy with this financial implosion?)

    For the record: DO NOT put iodine swabs in wounds- it as toxic to the injured tissues and will worsen wounds.

    A good rule of thumb is to only put compounds on wounds you would put in your eye.

    Tap water is fine though saline is probably better.

    All these other "boo boo compounds" are at best a waste of money and at worst actually harmful.

  53. As a visitor from 'over the pond', it's interesting to see the current financial problems mirror each other over the water...although this is now spreading throughout Europe (an Icelandic internet SAVINGS bank collapsed yesterday, leaving loads of Brits with substantial savings in the lurch, as Icelandic government won't guarantee savings. I work for a UK-based debt charity - however, we are beginning to get a lot of US visitors on the site asking whether we can alter the site to US currency also - we 'd appreciate some comments about how relevant the site content is to the States....anyone? Cheers

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