The Economist has come up with a US Presidential election prediction model which is updated daily. Right now it gives Mr. Biden an 87% chance of winning the electoral college votes.
In my opinion, this projection is completely ignored by the stock market which is focusing (hoping) on a rapid exit from COVID lockdowns, a possible vaccine, etc. However, I believe that the fiscal policy of the next President is more important than anything else.
According to the Congressional Budget Office the budget deficit will reach $4 trillion this year, some 20% of GDP, or even higher if a second round of business closures is necessary later on. Combined with record low corporate tax rates, there is every reason to expect that a Democratic President will seek to repair finances by raising taxes on businesses, particularly those that benefited greatly during the COVID pandemic.
As things stand right now, the risk-reward balance for stocks, particularly the FANG++ types, is heavily skewed towards risk, IMHO.
In my opinion, this projection is completely ignored by the stock market which is focusing (hoping) on a rapid exit from COVID lockdowns, a possible vaccine, etc. However, I believe that the fiscal policy of the next President is more important than anything else.
According to the Congressional Budget Office the budget deficit will reach $4 trillion this year, some 20% of GDP, or even higher if a second round of business closures is necessary later on. Combined with record low corporate tax rates, there is every reason to expect that a Democratic President will seek to repair finances by raising taxes on businesses, particularly those that benefited greatly during the COVID pandemic.
As things stand right now, the risk-reward balance for stocks, particularly the FANG++ types, is heavily skewed towards risk, IMHO.
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ReplyDelete*4 trillion
ReplyDeleteThanks camabron, it’s hard keeping track of all those zeros 😅
DeleteHaha indeed
Delete