Sunday, February 28, 2021

Chasing Peaks Is Dangerous

I'm looking at NASDAQ today... 

  • Since 1982 the index has had a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8%
  • After reaching a peak in early 2000 during the dotcom bubble, it crashed 80%
  • It wasn't until 2016 that NASDAQ made it back to its 2000 high - a full 16 years !!
  • Since then its CAGR has been a torrid 29% 
  • Just a few days ago NASDAQ peaked at near 14.150
  • Reversal to the long term CAGR would bring back to around the 8000 level

But, hey!!, the Fed will keep printing money forever, right? What, no???

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