Conventional wisdom: The West has shown remarkable unity in imposing sanctions against Russia. They will hurt the invader so much that it will quickly back down and stop the war.
An alternate version: Russia and Ukraine combined control huge percentages of global exports of the most essential goods of all: energy, grains and fertilizers. Russia can sustain a lack of mega yachts, Mercedes, Louis Vuitton and Dom Perignon indefinitely, while the West freezes and starves. Put another way, Russia is already using its WMDs, while the West is reduced to brandishing pop guns.
Only way for the West to prevail is to give up its Permagrowth model and go 100% Green, Sustainable, Vegan, and Local.
Cut consumption, kill the bear.
Plan A, B, and C: Don’t Feed The Bear