Friday, July 8, 2022

Fundamental Shift In US Employment

 The pandemic accelerated a fundamental shift in US employment patterns towards jobs in  the gig and "alternative" economy.  The chart below is revealing: the number of job openings (blue line) is much higher than the number of unemployed (red line).

Assuming the statistics are accurate - and I believe they are - we are witnessing the early stages of a revival of bargaining power for the working class.

It is also a headache for the Fed: it can't lift its foot off the monetary brakes, even if braking will result in a recession.  

Repeating my mantra: the ONLY way to deal with this inflation is to significantly reduce money supply via Quantitative Tightening.  And no matter what it says, the Fed hasn't started QT-ing yet - its balance sheet assets are still very near their all time high of $9 trillion, waaaaay higher than the $4 trillion in early 2020.

No comments:

Post a Comment