Friday, March 24, 2023

My Shortest Post Ever

 Today I'm gonna go for a record: Hellasious's shortest post ever.

Here goes:


Hint: It's about global banks

Prize for the first to decipher the "Delphic" initials... free upgrade to Subscriber Status (which doesn't exist, but hey, you never know) ;)


  1. The Sh*t is hitting the fan!

    1. Bingo!, we have a winner, well done!. Your Free Subscriber Certificate is in the mail. Hint: don't hold your breath :))))

    2. Ha! You give enough as it is. Question, any thoughts on this post? Guy is focused on balance sheet like you. Proposes matching RRP users (MMFs) with banks:

    3. By H. Excellent article and call for action on QE/QT/RRP. Thank you!!

  2. trying to do a back of envelope calculation of the fair yield of a 30 year treasury.

    Over the last 30 years, the usd has depreciated 400% vs gold.

    If we assume the same will hold true for the next 30 years, the breakeven treasury yield is:
    (400-100)/30 = 10%

    However, the last 30 years were relatively benign. The US now has problems like climate change, aging population, possibly another world war and a sever budget crisis. Lets factor in a two times USD depreciation, I feel that is fair, given we have to factor in New York being underwater within the 30 year time period.

    This gives a 30 year, breakeven bond yield of:
    (800-100)/30 = 23%

    Since we also want to make a profit for all the assumed risk, I would say a fair yield for the US thirty year bond is 30%.

    1. Interesting approach AKOC, I must admit..

    2. Thanks Hell... means a lot coming from you. =)


      If foreign holders have decrease their holdings as a percentage of total US debt.

      And fed has decreased their holdings.

      And US financial institutions absolute holdings are stable.

      WHO is holding the US debt that nobody buys?