Today I'm gonna go for a record: Hellasious's shortest post ever.
Hint: It's about global banks
Prize for the first to decipher the "Delphic" initials... free upgrade to Subscriber Status (which doesn't exist, but hey, you never know) ;)
The Sh*t is hitting the fan!ReplyDelete
Bingo!, we have a winner, well done!. Your Free Subscriber Certificate is in the mail. Hint: don't hold your breath :))))Delete
Ha! You give enough as it is. Question, any thoughts on this post? Guy is focused on balance sheet like you. Proposes matching RRP users (MMFs) with banks:Delete
By H. Excellent article and call for action on QE/QT/RRP. Thank you!!Delete
trying to do a back of envelope calculation of the fair yield of a 30 year treasury.ReplyDelete
Over the last 30 years, the usd has depreciated 400% vs gold.
If we assume the same will hold true for the next 30 years, the breakeven treasury yield is:
(400-100)/30 = 10%
However, the last 30 years were relatively benign. The US now has problems like climate change, aging population, possibly another world war and a sever budget crisis. Lets factor in a two times USD depreciation, I feel that is fair, given we have to factor in New York being underwater within the 30 year time period.
This gives a 30 year, breakeven bond yield of:
(800-100)/30 = 23%
Since we also want to make a profit for all the assumed risk, I would say a fair yield for the US thirty year bond is 30%.
Interesting approach AKOC, I must admit..Delete
Thanks Hell... means a lot coming from you. =)Delete
If foreign holders have decrease their holdings as a percentage of total US debt.
And fed has decreased their holdings.
And US financial institutions absolute holdings are stable.
WHO is holding the US debt that nobody buys?