Friday, August 25, 2023

Charting Tealeaves

 In my experience, charting as a market analysis tool is as useful as reading tealeaves.  But, occasionally it actually works, so when I have nothing better to do I look at charts for those familiar patterns which, purportedly, foretell the future.

I have nothing better to do right now (dog days of summer), so here's an annotated chart of SP500. The chart pattern is called an inverted flag (a bearish "trend continuation") and, theoretically, a downward breach of the flag signals a continued downward move to at least as low as the length of the pole from the point of the breach.

How do you take your tea? I recommend large doses of grains of salt... :) .  Nevertheless, as I said in my previous posts, the bond market - which I strongly believe is a very good warning indicator - is looking decidedly ugly, so maybe this time the tea leaves are issuing a valid reading.

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