Sunday, December 3, 2017

December 2, 2006 - A Day To Remember

I started this blog on December 2, 2006.  Wow! Literally, an Age ago: The Age Of The Debt Bubble.

I feel almost humbled by that younger person who went on a crusade against that Debt Bubble with a zeal that now seems somewhat naive and idealistic. But, hey, I was right and I was earlier than most.

Even after the first signs of trouble, a lot of people still doubted that we were in for a truly epic meltdown. Until Lehman collapsed, Bear was bought out for a pittance, Citi and AIG were bailed out, Merrill was sold... and so on and so forth. The global financial system teetered on the edge of the abyss until money started pouring down from the Ben Bernanke helo, a process that lasted almost a decade and is still ongoing in Europe.

 For me, the greatest “I told you so” came in 2015 as I watched The Big Short. I must have been the only one in the movie theater who didn't need those cute vignettes with Selena Gomez and Anthony Bourdain explaining CDOs and other such financial mines. And though I don't play the drums, I do play the piano (sort of..).

Alright... but this post is not about patting myself on the back for being right in the past (ok, ok, just a little).  As my first boss in the securities business used to say, "yeah, yeah... and what have you done for me today?"  Stan was demanding - and rightly so, because finance is: a) not for the lazy or fainthearted, b) a dog-eat-dog business and, c) an activity where your decisions are marked-to-market ALL THE TIME.

So, what is this post about? It's to explain that I am primarily a serial bubble hunter, one who tries to identify financial extremes on the upside (Greed/Mania) AND the downside (Fear/Apathy).

With "regular" bubbles, people ignore the obvious because they are blinded by their Greed. With "reverse" bubbles people initially become gripped by Fear and then fall victim to Apathy. 

I believe that I have now identified such a "reverse bubble", so I have been posting  about Greece, its economy, bond and equity markets
As the saying goes, "bear markets end with a whimper".  Another goes, "nobody rings a bell at the end of bull or bear markets".

Well, I think I see a bell... or is it a coffee cup? Time will tell.

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