Very quick post.
The US is inching towards default because of the debt limit situation, and markets are no longer ignoring the risk.
Take a look at the 1 year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) for US sovereign debt (ie Treasuries). Prices have soared to 150 bp, up 15-fold since early 2023.
By comparison, 1 year CDS for Germany are at 3 bp, Japan is at 5 bp and the UK is at 8 bp. Worried? You bet - literally!
PS President Biden declared that "the US will not default". Take a minute to think this through: if the world's largest debtor and issuer of the world's reserve currency is reduced to such statements... the game may not be over, but it is past its half-time, for sure.