To justify the continued torrent of fresh cash monthly via QE, the Fed and its happy Wall Street chorus of “economists” keep harping on the lower than expected number of monthly payroll additions. That’s disingenuous, to say the least.
Why? Because the number of job openings, ie jobs that go wanting because employers cannot find people willing to fill them, is now at at an all time record high, and equal to the total number of unemployed Americans (chart below).
The only time this has happened before in 20 years (when job openings data started being compiled) was in 2018-19, when the economy was, of course, very robust and the Fed had started to raise interest rates. Fed funds were raised from 0.4% to 2.4% (now at 0.05%) and the 10-year treasury was at 3.2% (now at 1.50%).
Does the Fed have no shame hiding behind the payroll numbers fig leaf? Well, no, because there isn’t even that, as we see above: every single unemployed American can have a job, immediately.
I don’t believe the Fed is clueless or incompetent - obviously not. I’m even willing to accept (hope) that it’s not in the politicians’ back pockets, doing their bidding to carry favor.
Which, then, begs this question: does the Fed know something that we don’t, maybe about the coronavirus? Because I fail to see anything in today’s red hot economy to justify its current inflation-objector stance.